NEW YORK (Realist English). Replacing massive airstrikes with a naval blockade is Donald Trump’s attempt to force Iran’s capitulation without a new escalation that would risk more casualties and economic collapse, CNN reports.
Iran’s economy, already shattered by sanctions, could collapse within weeks: hyperinflation, food shortages, a banking crisis. If the blockade works, Trump will outplay Tehran at its own game — after all, it was Iran that strangled the global economy by partially closing the Strait of Hormuz.
However, growing hopes among Washington officials and analysts that the blockade will bring Iran to its knees rest on an assumption that has repeatedly led the US into a dead end in the Middle East. The strategy assumes that Tehran will respond to pressure as Washington “logically” expects. But Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia and Libya have repeatedly shown that US adversaries often act contrary to Western calculations of their own national interests.
Iran has already proven its insensitivity to suffering
The idea that a worsening economic situation will spark internal protests and force Iran’s leadership to yield may be an illusion. The revolutionary authorities have already demonstrated complete indifference to the suffering of their own people during years of political repression that have claimed thousands of lives (according to human rights estimates). The very survival of the regime after the death of many top leaders during the war speaks to its colossal “pain tolerance.”
According to CNN and other sources, Trump initially believed that the US-Israeli military offensive would end the war quickly — long before Iran could close the strait. Now the outcome of the blockade may depend on timing: will economic strangulation break Tehran before the blockade itself worsens the global economic damage already inflicted by Iran’s closure of the strait (a significant portion of global oil and gas supplies have disappeared from the market)? If not, Trump’s new gamble will turn into a political trap, undermining Republicans’ hopes in the midterm elections.
How the blockade could quickly crush Iran’s economy
According to an analysis by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), the blockade is a perfectly realistic military undertaking. The US Navy has sufficient forces in the region and decades of experience with blockades (Yugoslavia, Haiti, Venezuela).
More than 90% of Iran’s annual trade turnover ($109.7 billion) passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Cutting off oil exports and imports could trigger hyperinflation and a currency crisis within days. Within weeks, Iran could be forced to halt oil production — simply because there would be nowhere to store the product.
Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis told CNN on April 15: “They’ve been effectively pounded in the face with a two-by-four in a military sense, but we haven’t really choked off their economy. And that’s why I think they believe they still have some cards to play.”
Risks of retaliation and the China factor
The blockade presents Iran with a new strategic puzzle. Escalation on its side is risky: resumption of hostilities and a rupture of the ceasefire with the US and Israel. The IRGC could respond by renewing attacks on US allies in the Persian Gulf. Another option is for Yemen’s Houthis (backed by Iran) to shut down the alternative tanker route through the Red Sea, which would be a hammer blow to the global economy and would heap political pressure on Trump.
The White House is optimistic, but talks are at an impasse
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on April 15: “We feel good about the prospects of a deal.” However, the talks held in Islamabad on April 11–12 showed that the sides’ positions are irreconcilable. Washington demands that Iran forever abandon nuclear weapons, limit its missile program and end support for proxies.
Tehran demands compensation and the right to enrich uranium (at least in theory). The US offered a 20‑year moratorium on enrichment, Iran offered five. A compromise may be achievable.
But successful peacemaking will require many months of talks on the most complex technical issues, depth and patience that Trump’s diplomacy has so far lacked. Therefore, the main question now is not “what happens if the blockade fails?” but “what happens next if it works?”.