SANTIAGO (Realist English). Chile votes on Sunday in a presidential and parliamentary election widely expected to tilt to the right, as concerns over gang-related crime and rising irregular immigration overshadow traditional ideological divides. No candidate is projected to cross the 50% threshold, making a December 14 runoff all but certain.
At first glance, the race offers stark ideological contrasts: Jeannette Jara, 51, a former labor minister and member of the Communist Party, faces a crowded conservative field led by José Antonio Kast, 59, an ultraconservative lawyer who opposes abortion and vows to shrink the state. But mounting anxiety over security has pushed both candidates toward the political center.
Jara speaks of fiscal restraint, while Kast — a staunch Catholic and father of nine — has avoided social-conservative themes. Both vow to combat foreign criminal groups such as Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, blamed for a rise in kidnappings, extortion and trafficking that has shaken Chile’s reputation as one of Latin America’s safest countries.
“They’re talking about what all voters care about — they’re competing for the center,” said Rodolfo Disi, a political scientist at Adolfo Ibáñez University.
Polling behind the two leaders are Johannes Kaiser, a libertarian congressman and YouTuber, and Evelyn Matthei, a veteran centre-right figure. With the conservative vote split, analysts expect Jara, backed by President Gabriel Boric’s ruling coalition, to place first. Yet many believe she would struggle in a head-to-head runoff against a right-wing rival promising a tougher security crackdown. “If she shifts right on crime, the right can always go further,” Disi warned.
Mandatory voting adds uncertainty
This election marks Chile’s first use of compulsory voting since the practice was reinstated. Automatic registration has added roughly four million new voters — many casting a ballot for the first time. Those who abstain face fines of up to $100. The political impact is unclear. “It’s a huge question,” said Robert Funk of the University of Chile. “Are they young people who like Jara, or voters from marginal neighborhoods drawn to Kast’s hard-line message?”
Chile is also renewing its entire lower house and part of the Senate. Among the electorate are more than 800,000 foreign residents eligible to vote voluntarily. Polling suggests immigrants — especially Venezuelans — lean to the right, though some hesitate to back candidates advocating mass deportations. “I would vote for Kast, but it hurts to hear speeches like that,” said Venezuelan delivery worker Juan Pablo Sánchez.
Economy, immigration, and security dominate
Jara proposes investment-led growth and debt discipline, along with an $800 “living income” through subsidies and wage increases to respond to cost-of-living pressures rooted in the 2019 social unrest. Kast, channeling Argentina’s President Javier Milei, promises deep spending cuts and lower corporate taxes, a plan Matthei — an economist — has dismissed as unrealistic. Kaiser goes further, proposing to cut up to $15 billion and dismiss 200,000 public employees.
All major candidates favor tougher immigration controls. Foreign residents now number 1.6 million — double the 2017 figure — with an estimated 330,000 undocumented. Kast proposes a wall along Chile’s northern border and mass deportations; Kaiser calls for detention camps; Matthei advocates drones and additional military support. Even Jara promises new prisons and swift expulsions for convicted foreign offenders.
For many voters, the stakes are personal. “I want a better country — not just for me, but for my children,” said Alatina Velázquez, a 20-year-old student who lost two friends to gang violence. “Right now, that just means being able to leave class at night without looking over my shoulder.”