BEIJING (Realist English). China’s exports returned to growth in November, outperforming market expectations, even as shipments to the United States continued a sharp decline despite last month’s trade agreement between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
Customs data released Monday showed outbound shipments rising 5.9% in U.S. dollar terms compared with a year earlier, beating the 3.8% increase projected in a Reuters poll and reversing October’s unexpected contraction. Imports grew 1.9%, below the forecast, as weak consumer confidence and the property slump continued to weigh on domestic demand.
Exports to the U.S. fell 28.6% in November, marking the eighth straight month of double-digit declines. Imports from the U.S. were down 19%. Analysts note that, despite the trade truce reached in South Korea, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods remain at about 47.5%, while China’s duties on U.S. products stand near 32%, limiting immediate relief.
Steep losses in the American market were offset by stronger shipments to other regions. Exports to ASEAN rose more than 8%, while sales to the European Union jumped nearly 15%. Overall, China’s exports grew 5.4% in the first 11 months of 2025, while imports slipped 0.6%, lifting the trade surplus to $1.076 trillion, up 21.6% year on year.
November also saw a sharp increase in rare earth exports — up 24% to 5,494 tons — and a 13% rise in soybean imports, though volumes remain below what Beijing pledged under the U.S. trade deal.
The rebound in external demand offers some support as policymakers prepare for the annual Central Economic Work Conference, where Beijing will discuss its 2026 growth target and economic priorities. Economists expect authorities to maintain the “around 5%” goal and introduce additional stimulus to counter ongoing manufacturing weakness and sluggish consumption.
The yuan has appreciated nearly 5% since April but has not yet dented export flows. Economists warn, however, that China must reduce its reliance on external markets and strengthen household spending to ensure more sustainable growth.