BEIJING (Realist English). China’s exports to the United States fell 33 percent in August, customs data showed Monday, dragging overall export growth to its weakest pace in six months. Imports from the U.S. also declined by 16 percent year-on-year.
Overall exports rose 4.4 percent in U.S. dollar terms compared with a year earlier, missing economists’ forecasts for a 5 percent increase. Growth slowed sharply from the previous two months, reflecting the impact of a high base in 2023, when shipments grew at their fastest pace in 18 months.
“Exports are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, with the temporary boost from the U.S.-China trade truce fading and Washington tightening its scrutiny of rerouted shipments,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.
Imports grew 1.3 percent in August, falling short of expectations for a 3 percent gain. While inbound shipments have increased for three consecutive months, they remain constrained by weak domestic demand, a prolonged property downturn and rising job insecurity.
Chinese exporters have sought to diversify beyond the U.S. market. Shipments to the European Union rose 10.4 percent in August, while exports to ASEAN surged 22.5 percent, to Africa 26 percent, and to Latin America nearly 6 percent. In the first eight months of 2025, exports to the U.S. fell 15.5 percent year-on-year, while exports to Africa jumped 24.6 percent.
Despite this diversification, the U.S. remains China’s largest single-country trading partner, absorbing $283 billion worth of Chinese goods this year to August. Exports to the EU bloc totaled $541 billion in the same period.
Trade tensions remain high. On August 11, Beijing and Washington extended their tariff truce for another 90 days, maintaining average U.S. tariffs of 55 percent on Chinese imports and Chinese duties of 30 percent on U.S. goods, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. But talks have yielded little progress, and President Donald Trump has threatened a 200 percent tariff if Beijing fails to increase rare-earth exports.
Chinese exports of rare earths rose 22.6 percent in August to 5,791.8 metric tons, customs data showed. Analysts warn, however, that Washington’s new 40 percent tariff on suspected transshipments could further squeeze exports in the months ahead.
At home, Beijing faces sluggish consumer demand and deflationary pressures. Goldman Sachs expects producer prices to remain “deeply negative,” forecasting a 2.9 percent year-on-year decline in August. Headline CPI fell 0.2 percent.
With growth indicators likely to show further weakness when released next week, some analysts expect the People’s Bank of China to cut its policy rate by 10 to 20 basis points. “Beijing can use a rate cut to counter pessimism and reassure markets,” said Neo Wang, lead China strategist at Evercore ISI.