WASHINGTON (Realist English). The United States is unlikely to bring China into nuclear arms control negotiations in the near term, despite upcoming high-level meetings, experts said, highlighting growing uncertainty after the expiration of the last U.S.-Russia treaty.
Speaking at a policy briefing, Arms Control Association board chair Thomas Countryman said there are few signs that Washington, Beijing, or Moscow are actively pursuing meaningful negotiations. “I see very little creativity or initiative in any of the three capitals,” he said, describing current dynamics as focused more on political positioning than substantive dialogue.
The comments come after the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expired in February, removing the last legally binding limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals and raising concerns about a renewed arms race.
U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed a new trilateral agreement that would include China, arguing that existing bilateral frameworks no longer reflect the realities of a multipolar nuclear landscape. However, analysts say Beijing has little incentive to participate under current conditions.
According to Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, declining international pressure on China — combined with rising geopolitical tensions involving the United States — reduces Beijing’s motivation to engage in negotiations.
China has consistently maintained that its nuclear arsenal is significantly smaller than those of the United States and Russia, and has signaled reluctance to join formal arms reduction talks unless those two countries first reduce their stockpiles further.
The breakdown of existing arms control frameworks has further complicated the landscape. With New START expired, there are currently no binding limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, which together account for the majority of global warheads.
At the same time, tensions between major powers are rising. The United States has accused China of covert nuclear testing, while Beijing has rejected the allegations and criticized Washington for escalating competition.
Experts suggest that upcoming meetings between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could still serve as a platform for informal dialogue. However, expectations remain low that such engagement will lead to concrete agreements.
Analytically, the current situation reflects a transition from a bilateral arms control system dominated by the United States and Russia to a more complex, multipolar nuclear environment, where traditional frameworks are harder to replicate.
The key question is whether major powers can establish new mechanisms to manage strategic competition, or whether the absence of binding agreements will accelerate a global nuclear buildup with fewer constraints and higher risks.