NEW YORK (Realist English). In an interview with CNN published on April 9, former CIA director and commander of international forces in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, spoke about the crisis in NATO during the war with Iran, the military results of the operation, and the main threat — control over the Strait of Hormuz.
NATO is the greatest alliance in history, but it has limits
Answering the host’s question about whether the alliance has been irreparably damaged, Petraeus expressed hope that it has not.
“I believe NATO is the most important alliance in history. It has proven itself repeatedly, but it does have limits, particularly when it comes to so-called out-of-area operations, which this one was,” the general stated.
He emphasized that he understands President Trump’s perspective and noted that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (whom Petraeus knows as a “very skilled and diplomatic leader”) also agrees with the White House chief’s concerns.
At the same time, according to Petraeus, Rutte recognizes the need to preserve the alliance.
“It is hugely important. It is performing magnificently in supporting our Ukrainian partners who are fighting a common enemy — Russia,” the general added.
“I wish individual NATO countries had been more forthcoming.”
The host asked whether Petraeus thinks Trump was right to expect direct NATO military participation in the war with Iran. The general answered no, but clarified: “I am saying that individual NATO countries — I wish they had been more forthcoming. Many of them tried to thread a needle, saying they could provide their bases only for defensive purposes and so forth. In the end, they did make their bases available, with the exception of Spain. And that is an issue that will have to be dealt with down the road.”
Petraeus stressed that the US is fighting an enemy that threatens not only Gulf countries but also European states, citing Turkey and the United Kingdom (regarding Cyprus).
“I wish they had been more supportive without necessarily committing to the operations we were directly conducting against Iran. By the way, some of them have very important mine-sweeping capabilities, particularly the UK. And if we get into that down the road, it would be really helpful if they would commit to being part of whatever maritime coalition is necessary to ensure the Strait of Hormuz is safe for transiting vessels,” the general said.
“Our military performed magnificently, but Iran may emerge from the war strategically strengthened.”
Commenting on the statement by Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine that three military objectives had been achieved (destroying Iran’s missile and drone capabilities, destroying the Iranian navy, and destroying its defense industrial base), Petraeus praised the performance of American forces.
“I think our military men and women performed magnificently. I do believe strongly that General Caine has been a sober and forthright voice in addressing the country, explaining what we sought to do and what we have achieved. I think we have largely achieved the three objectives he set out. ‘Destruction’ implies perhaps a bit more than what we have achieved regarding launchers, stockpiles and manufacturing facilities, but I think we are very close to that,” Petraeus said.
However, he pointed to a paradox: “The question is whether Iran will emerge from this militarily very weakened. There is no question that all of their capabilities have been degraded. Their navy is basically on the bottom of the Gulf at this point. Their other assets are dramatically degraded or destroyed. But could they somehow, paradoxically, emerge from this militarily weakened, but perhaps actually strategically strengthened?”.
In Petraeus’s view, the answer depends on the final resolution regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“If Iran gains control of the strait, it will become its Panama Canal.”
The general explained: “You can argue they don’t control it. But actually, just by disrupting traffic, they do, because the measure of merit for ship owners and cargo owners is not about risk insurance — it’s about the lives of their crew members. They need absolute confidence that their ships will not be struck in order to begin clearing out the roughly 700 vessels inside the Gulf and even more outside.”
That is why, he said, the current fragile ceasefire and upcoming talks (set to begin on April 11) must include a “real deal” on the Strait of Hormuz.
“Control of the strait — if it becomes Iran’s Panama Canal and they can issue tolls… I mean, if it’s $2 million per vessel (and reportedly some companies have been paying that much to transit), and you multiply that by 100 or more ships a day, that is a very substantial amount of hard currency that would enable Iran to repair the extraordinary damage inflicted on its infrastructure,” Petraeus warned.