WASHINGTON (Realist English). Exactly one week has passed since the signing of the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” between the United States and Iran — a document that halted open warfare and launched a 60‑day negotiation process.
During this time, both sides have already begun to reap tangible benefits, but lingering risks, including an Iranian drone strike on a civilian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, serve as a reminder: a lasting peace is still far off.
What the US Got: The Strait Is Open, but Not Fully
Washington’s main and most tangible achievement is the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had closed at the start of the conflict. According to Kpler, a company that tracks vessel movements, 70 ships passed through the strait on June 24 — more than double the number on June 23, although before the war the figure exceeded 100.
The cessation of hostilities itself has become a significant achievement. The Trump administration, by its own admission, sought to avoid an “economic catastrophe” linked to a record oil shock. According to JPMorgan estimates, the closure of the strait deprived the world of 1.6 billion barrels of oil supplies.
However, the strait is operating with restrictions. Iran continues to demand permission for passage through the northern corridor, while mines in the centre of the channel force vessels to use a single lane off the coast of Oman. Safe navigation remains in question.
What Iran Got: Billions Without Real Concessions
In one week, Tehran achieved what previously took years of negotiations. The US administration issued 60‑day sanctions waivers allowing Iran to export crude oil and petroleum products and to use related banking, insurance and transport services.
According to the memorandum, Washington immediately began lifting the naval blockade and committed to completing the process within 30 days. Iran will also gain access to frozen assets in banks in Qatar, Iraq, India, Japan, China and other countries.
According to CNN estimates, this amounts to tens of billions of dollars. In addition, the document provides for the creation of a $300 billion fund for Iran’s reconstruction with support from Gulf states.
At the same time, Tehran has not made any real concessions on key issues: the missile programme has been excluded from negotiations, and nuclear commitments have been postponed until a final agreement. Iran merely “reaffirms” that it will not develop nuclear weapons, but does not commit to dismantling centrifuges or allowing inspections.
Drone Attack: The Fragility of the Ceasefire
The incident that occurred on June 25 served as a sobering reminder of the fragility of the agreements reached. A US official said that an Iranian drone had struck a civilian vessel in the strait. The attack disrupted an operation to evacuate thousands of sailors from ships trapped in the Persian Gulf since the start of the war.
This is not the first such incident: earlier, Iran had accused the US of attacking its tanker.
Constant threats from Iranian military officials, warning that no vessel should pass through the strait without permission, as well as the uncertainty over demining, create a tense backdrop for negotiations.
60 Days to Settle Everything: What Next?
By August 18, when the 60‑day deadline expires, the parties must agree on a final peace agreement. Technical talks have already taken place in Switzerland, where mechanisms for a ceasefire in Lebanon and safe navigation were discussed.
However, the disagreements are fundamental. US Vice President JD Vance speaks of progress and says Iran has agreed to allow nuclear inspectors. Iran’s Foreign Ministry denies this: “Nuclear issues have not yet been discussed, no new commitments have been made.”
For Israel, which is not a party to the memorandum, the absence of clauses limiting Iran’s missile programme and ending support for proxy forces remains unacceptable. Jerusalem intends to press for these provisions to be included in the final agreement through the US Congress.
Thus, the week after Islamabad has shown that the memorandum stopped the war and brought immediate benefits to both sides. But the question of whether this document will become the basis for a lasting peace or merely a tactical pause before a new escalation remains open. The next 50 days will provide the answer.