TEL AVIV (Realist English). The phone call that US President Donald Trump predicted never happened, but he left little doubt about what would come next.
On the morning of April 16, Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would speak with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.
It would have been the first direct contact in decades between the leaders of two neighboring countries that have no diplomatic relations. Trump declared it would provide “a little breathing room.”
But against the backdrop of a hot war between Israel and the Iranian proxy Hezbollah, Aoun declined the call.
Trump didn’t wait for a conversation to happen. Just hours later, he announced that a ceasefire would begin at midnight. And Netanyahu had little choice but to go along.
This is the latest example of a pattern whereby Trump’s declarations box in perhaps his most vocal international supporter, forcing Netanyahu to make critical strategic decisions based on what the US president will allow.
“It’s Not Over Yet” — and an Immediate Ceasefire
Just days earlier, on April 15, Netanyahu had vowed that the war against Hezbollah was still ongoing. “We are still fighting them,” he said. “It is not over yet.” And on April 15, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said he had just approved additional war plans in Lebanon and Iran.
But without Trump’s approval, Netanyahu has little room to maneuver. Although the temporary ceasefire is supposed to last 10 days, Trump clearly intends for it to hold. “It has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th,” he boasted on social media.
Israel Learned of the Ceasefire from Trump’s Post
On the evening of April 15, Israel’s security cabinet discussed the possibility of a temporary ceasefire. But there was no vote and no admission that the end of the war might be just days away.
On the evening of April 16, moments before Trump announced the Lebanon ceasefire, Netanyahu again convened his security cabinet for a remote consultation. Israelis — both politicians and ordinary residents — learned about the ceasefire not from Netanyahu, but from a Trump social media post.
“At this stage of the war, which he entered into largely due to Netanyahu’s persuasion, Trump has become the final, if not the exclusive, arbiter,” writes Amos Harel, military analyst for Haaretz. “Just as Trump forced the conclusion of the previous 12-day war against Iran in June, he has now imposed temporary ceasefires in Iran and in Lebanon.”
Five Times in One Term
In total, Trump has forced Netanyahu’s hand on at least five separate occasions, including the two wars with Iran. The US president pressured Netanyahu into a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza, and he compelled Netanyahu to call Qatar and apologize for a failed Israeli strike in Doha targeting Hamas leaders. Lebanon is just the latest example.
And in each case, Israel fell short of the decisive victory it desired — and which Netanyahu had promised. In Gaza, Hamas has firm control over half of the coastal territory not occupied by Israel. In Lebanon, Hezbollah remains a formidable threat capable of launching drones and rockets at Israel. In Iran, the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is now the regime of his son, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
The Israeli military has expanded its territorial grip on each front, holding more land in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. And, at least for now, there has been no real pressure from the White House for Israeli forces to withdraw. For Netanyahu, these swaths of land are deeper security zones, which Israel may well hold for years. But they are far from victory.
Israel’s adversaries have no doubt been weakened, but they have survived.
Tehran Enters Negotiations from a Position of Strength
Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran will enter the next round of negotiations from a position of strength. “Given its demonstrated willingness, and capability, to impose significant costs on its neighbors and on the global economy, Tehran is unlikely to concede under pressure alone, regardless of escalating threats from Washington,” Citrinowicz wrote on social media.
“One Hand Holds a Weapon, the Other Is Extended in Peace”
On April 17, Netanyahu said in a statement that he had agreed to the temporary ceasefire “at the request of my friend, President Trump.” But he warned that Israel was ready to resume the war. “One hand of ours holds a weapon; our other hand is extended in peace.”
Trump would have none of it. Twenty minutes later, he said — again on social media — that “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are prohibited from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”
The Israeli prime minister in response insisted that the IDF’s tasks in Lebanon would be completed, by force if necessary: “We haven’t finished the job,” he said. “There are things we plan to do regarding the remaining threat of rockets and drones.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz was even more categorical, calling the ceasefire a “temporary freeze” in the context of an ongoing war. “The goal we defined — the disarmament of Hezbollah by military or diplomatic means — was and remains the objective of a campaign to which we are committed,” Katz said. He also confirmed that the IDF is holding and will continue to hold all the areas it has seized.
Two fundamental demands were voiced by Netanyahu: the complete disarmament of the Lebanese group and a lasting peace agreement achieved “from a position of strength.”
Moreover, the Israeli leadership announced the creation of a new “yellow line” of security. According to Netanyahu, a 10‑kilometer buffer zone has been established along the entire northern border, stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Syrian border. This zone, in Israel’s view, is intended to forever eliminate the threat of infiltration and anti‑tank fire.
Military sources also indicated for the first time that they see the Litani River as a new permanent security line in case Lebanon cannot guarantee Hezbollah’s disarmament.
Army in the Dark and Ready for New Attacks
The confusion in military circles was telling. IDF officers deployed in southern Lebanon said they learned of the ceasefire from foreign media and Telegram posts, not from the command. “We were not notified of the cessation of hostilities. These are the most dangerous hours for us,” N12 quoted one officer as saying.
Despite the formal ceasefire, the army remains on high alert. According to The Jerusalem Post, the IDF intends to continue attacking Hezbollah fighters in the southern part of the country if they do not surrender, and to strike targets north of the Litani River if hostilities resume. Just minutes before the ceasefire came into force, Israeli special forces captured a strategic ridge in southern Lebanon.
Domestic Criticism: “Betrayal of the Northern Residents”
In Israel itself, the announcement of the ceasefire caused disappointment and sharp criticism from the right flank. Citizens, especially residents of the northern areas who have lived under shelling and in bomb shelters for months, fear that the lull will only delay another war.
Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman called the ceasefire a “betrayal of the northern residents.” “You cannot condemn people to live from one round of fighting to another — this is an unbearable situation,” the politician said. The majority in Israel, according to polls, is disappointed by the unexpected turn of events, believing that the country has once again failed to finish the job and achieve a decisive victory.
Fragile Ceasefire with No Prospects
Analysts agree that the ceasefire is unlikely to prove sustainable. Experts note that the 10‑day pause reflects the parties’ desire to reduce the intensity of hostilities but does not resolve the key contradictions.
Dmitry Bridge, a Middle East expert, called the ceasefire “extremely fragile.” According to him, its durability depends on several factors, including Hezbollah’s willingness to compromise and US pressure on Israel. At the same time, Hezbollah itself has no intention of disarming as long as Israeli troops continue to occupy Lebanese territory.