PARIS (Realist English). Work-related migration to advanced economies dropped by more than one-fifth last year as labour markets weakened and governments tightened visa rules, according to new data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Permanent labour migration across the OECD fell 21% between 2023 and 2024 to about 934,000 people, marking the first major decline since the post-pandemic recovery. The slowdown began even before President Donald Trump’s return to the White House reduced arrivals into the United States.
Part of the fall stemmed from stricter visa regimes — particularly in the United Kingdom, where net migration fell by more than 40% in 2024. But even in EU states that did not tighten policies, labour migration fell below 2019 levels.
OECD migration chief Jean-Christophe Dumont said the downturn reflects a “less favourable” global economic climate. The IMF recently cut its 2025 growth forecast to 2.8%, citing the impact of Trump’s trade war. Meanwhile, Canada, Australia and the UK have all introduced measures in the past two years to restrict labour inflows.
The presence of 5.1 million Ukrainians in OECD countries — many granted temporary protection after Russia’s 2022 invasion — also eased labour shortages, reducing demand for foreign workers.
Other forms of migration shifted as well. International student arrivals to OECD countries fell 13% amid stricter visa rules in the US, UK, Canada and Australia. Humanitarian migration, by contrast, continued to climb, with a surge of US asylum applications late in the Biden administration and rising small-boat arrivals to the UK from EU shores.
As a result, total permanent migration to OECD countries fell only 4% from its 2023 peak, reaching 6.2 million — still about 15% above pre-pandemic levels. Temporary labour mobility held steady at roughly 2.3 million, remaining above 2019 figures.
Migration to OECD states reached a record 6.5 million in 2023, driven in part by the UK, Canada, France, Japan and the US. Research by Goldman Sachs found that immigration contributed most of the employment gains in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Germany and the UK that year, and added more than four million jobs in the US.
Looking ahead, Dumont expects overall migration levels to ease slightly in 2025 but remain historically high despite tighter US policies. Migrant employment remains strong, with foreign-born workers in the UK recording a 76% employment rate — marginally above that of UK-born workers.
Experts say structural labour shortages will keep migration central to political debate. International Labour Organization specialist Fabiola Mieres said sectors such as agriculture, construction and healthcare depend heavily on migrant labour and require better wages and conditions to address chronic shortages. She added that migration “will continue to shape electoral politics worldwide,” particularly in Europe and the United States.