BUDAPEST (Realist English). Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, long hailed by right-wing leaders from Donald Trump to JD Vance, is facing one of the most serious political challenges of his 15-year rule. But the threat does not come from the liberal left — it comes from a disillusioned centre-right, embodied by a former insider: Peter Magyar.
In recent months, Hungary has witnessed a surprising political shift. Despite a government-backed attempt to block this year’s Pride march, between 100,000 and 200,000 people filled the streets of Budapest, defying the ban and rejecting Orban’s culture war narrative. But while Fidesz exploited the event to rally its conservative base, it also revealed cracks in the system Orban built — a system he once called an “illiberal state”.
The true blow came from within. After a presidential pardon scandal involving child abuse, Magyar — a former Fidesz official and ex-husband of Orban’s justice minister — broke ranks. In a viral interview, he accused the ruling elite of corruption, nepotism and hypocrisy. His centre-right Tisza party is now polling up to 18% ahead of Fidesz.
Analysts say Magyar’s rise is rooted in a collapse of trust. He has campaigned on declining public services — underfunded hospitals, failing schools, and a dysfunctional railway system — all once showcases of Orban’s domestic policy.
Since 2010, Orban has reshaped Hungary’s electoral system, media landscape and judiciary, centralising power and sidelining dissent. But today, his strongest political weapon — delivering rising living standards — is faltering. The economy, heavily reliant on German industrial investment, is stagnating. Inflation is biting, and Orban’s promise of prosperity is losing traction.
Meanwhile, Orban’s overtures to Moscow have grown bolder. He brands himself the “peace candidate”, maintaining ties with Vladimir Putin and opposing military aid to Ukraine. This may still appeal to a war-weary electorate, but it also isolates Hungary within the EU.
The 2026 election is shaping up as a referendum not only on Orban’s rule, but on the trajectory of Hungary itself. Magyar and his allies frame it as a crossroads: between renewed democracy and creeping authoritarianism. Despite a loyal Fidesz base of around 2 million, that may no longer be enough to win — not with undecided voters growing restless.
Orban, once a master of political reinvention, now faces the test of survival. For the first time in years, Hungary’s opposition senses not just hope, but momentum.