SURGUT (Realist English). The government has done very little to transform the country’s economy to achieve the declared political goals, Russia must implement reindustrialization. This opinion was expressed in an expert survey by Mikhail Martynov, Doctor of Political Sciences, head of the regional branch of the Russian Society of Political Scientists (RSPS) in KhMAO-Yugra.
“Just as they have not managed to resolve import substitution issues in any noticeable way before the events in Ukraine, so things have not moved forward over the past four months. Moreover, the government still professes a monetarist policy, and is more concerned about the exchange rate. Meanwhile, the administrative regulation of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar has made it extremely difficult to operate for even those enterprises that are still operating. Of course, such an exchange rate is beneficial to oil and gas corporations, but in this case, it contradicts the interests of the rest of the country,” Mikhail Martynov believes.
The expert warned the society and the leadership of Russia against facile optimism:
“It turned out that the imposition of sanctions has not lead to the collapse of the Russian economy or political destabilization, anxiety about this was replaced with facile optimism. The Russian media gloatingly exaggerate topics related to the shortage of energy resources in Europe, the personal insignificance of Western politicians and the crisis of the Western world as a whole. There is nothing more dangerous than underestimating of the enemy and overestimating of your own strength.
It doesn’t matter how much time and money the West will need to solve the problem of energy supply independent of Russia — a year or two, but it will achieve this. And if our country is not able to also transform its production during this time, ensuring the same independence from Western technologies, then the threat of socio-political destabilization will become real.”
In his opinion, the Russian economy “does not need dollars or rubles, but technologies and the development of its own production”:
“While dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies remains, it is necessary to ensure that these technologies necessary for industrialization are obtained from the West.
For example, under the program “gas — in exchange for technology”. As for the prospects of the “Donbass consensus”, it is definitely not worth exaggerating its stability in a country with a high level of social differentiation. It can be maintained only under the condition of a successful foreign and domestic policy.”