WASHINGTON (Realist English). US President Donald Trump is betting on a total naval blockade of Iran, calculating that economic strangulation will ultimately break Tehran’s resistance.
However, analysts warn that this strategy rests on untested assumptions, and time is not on the American leader’s side as his approval ratings fall ahead of the midterm elections.
‘Genius’ blockade and its logic
The White House’s plan is that cutting off export and import flows will cause the collapse of Iran’s economy, creating unbearable pressure on the regime and forcing it to permanently abandon its nuclear programme. “The blockade is genius, OK?” Trump said on 29 April. “Their economy is in real trouble. It’s a dead economy.”
According to CNN, Trump is so pleased with the plan that he has instructed aides to prepare for a long‑term blockade. The approach has two undeniable advantages: it allows pressure to be applied without risking US casualties (unlike a ground operation or resumption of bombing) and it restores Washington’s economic leverage, which Iran weakened by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Two main problems with the strategy
The success of the plan hinges on two questions.
First: how long will the American public and Congress tolerate the rising costs of war? Gasoline prices in the US have already exceeded $4 per gallon, inflation is accelerating, and voters angered by high prices are preparing to vote in the November 2026 midterms. Trump’s approval rating is at a historic low, Republicans fear losing the House and are struggling to hold the Senate. The longer the blockade continues, the greater the economic damage to the United States itself.
Second: are intelligence assessments of an imminent Iranian collapse realistic? Washington tends to project its own logic onto Iranian society, but a theocracy with a 47‑year history of resistance to the “Great Satan” might choose collapse over capitulation.
Arguments for: Iran’s economy is indeed cracking
According to the Wall Street Journal on 29 April, the war’s costs already include one million unemployed, soaring food prices and an internet shutdown that has paralysed the online economy. Inflation is rampant, and red meat has become unaffordable. Iran’s oil minister has called on the public to cut energy consumption, and government offices have been ordered to reduce electricity use by 70% after 1 p.m.
According to CNN sources, US officials are receiving intelligence that the Iranian economy can survive only a few weeks. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the inability to export oil will force Iran to halt production, leading to irreversible damage to wells that could take years to fix.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, argues that the blockade could cause severe economic suffering that could translate into uncontrollable political opposition. “But it could take months,” he warns. “We’ve never been here before; this is uncharted territory. Iran has never experienced anything like this, not even during the Iran‑Iraq war.”
Arguments against: Iran has not surrendered even in worse times
If the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and weeks of relentless bombing did not break the regime, is there reason to believe an economic crisis will?
“There is a constant search for a silver bullet, that one point of pressure that will cause the Iranians to either collapse, capitulate or bend to America’s wishes,” says Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute. “And almost every time the US goes down that path, it ends up disappointing itself.”
Trump’s confidence reflects another familiar Washington trend – an incorrigible belief, especially among conservatives, that Iran’s economy and regime are on the verge of collapse. Yet the Islamic Republic has survived decades of sanctions, endured an eight‑year war with Iraq (about one million casualties), and each time protests reached a critical mass, the regime sent its thugs into the streets to massacre civilians to save the revolution.
“All they have to do is say ‘we give up, we give up,'” Trump said on 29 April in the Oval Office. If Iran capitulates, the president could break a vicious cycle of nearly half a century of confrontation. If not, he will only prove once again that the Islamic Republic’s willingness to take punch after punch can neuter far greater American power.
What next?
Time is working against Trump. High fuel prices – about $8 a gallon in Los Angeles on 28 April – are already hitting Americans’ wallets. The president’s own psychology also plays a role. He is fixated on his legacy, dreaming of grand projects in his last 1,000 days in office. But for a man who sees himself as one of life’s ultimate winners, nothing could be more shameful than being branded a loser in a war with Iran.