WASHINGTON (Realist English). On May 25, US-Iranian negotiations continue to teeter between a potential breakthrough and military escalation.
President Donald Trump shifted his rhetoric twice in a single day: first stating that a “memorandum of understanding is largely agreed,” then calling reports of a deal premature and demanding a “good and proper agreement.”
Against this backdrop, the Pentagon is cancelling leave and putting troops on alert, while Israel is preparing an operation to extract Iranian uranium.
Trump’s zigzags and the mediators
On the evening of May 24, the US president wrote on his Truth Social platform that “significant progress” had been made with Iran and that the signing of a memorandum would be announced “very soon.” However, by the morning of May 25 he had adjusted his position: “The deal is not fully agreed. I will not let what Obama did happen again. It must be a good and proper agreement.”
The main stumbling blocks remain:
- Unfreezing Iranian assets – Tehran demands the lifting of all restrictions.
- Stockpiles of highly enriched uranium (according to the IAEA, more than 400 kg enriched to 60%). Iran has in principle agreed to give up the uranium, but the terms of its transfer have not yet been settled.
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz – phased demining and restoration of navigation are under discussion.
Pakistan and Qatar continue shuttle diplomacy. Tehran confirms “some progress” but warns that “serious disagreements remain.”
Pentagon cancels holidays
US forces are being placed on heightened alert. According to CBS, no order to strike has been issued yet, but all services are working on “Plan B” in case diplomacy fails. The Pentagon has cancelled planned celebrations and personnel leave. Trump himself declined to attend his eldest son’s wedding, citing an “important period for the country.”
Israel prepares an operation
Israeli sources report that a joint US-Israeli commando operation is being developed to extract highly enriched uranium from the rubble of a nuclear facility in Isfahan. The leak of details, it is noted, resulted from “reckless trading in national security” and has caused a scandal in the Knesset.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Axios and CNN, is sceptical of diplomacy and in a telephone conversation with Trump on May 19 insisted on an immediate resumption of airstrikes. Israeli forces have been placed on the highest state of alert.
Iran: the response will be “overwhelming”
Tehran has officially warned that if US-Israeli aggression resumes, the response will be “in a much more overwhelming manner.” According to Iranian officials, the army and the IRGC have fully recovered their potential during the ceasefire and are ready to repel any attack. Should the talks fail, a pre‑emptive strike by Iran cannot be ruled out.
The Lebanese front: a ceasefire held together by goodwill
The 45‑day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced in mid‑April, is in effect being violated. Israeli warplanes are carrying out daily strikes on southern Lebanon. On May 23, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, at least 20 civilians, including women and children, were killed. Israel describes the targets as “Hezbollah military infrastructure.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the problem lies not with the Lebanese government but with Hezbollah itself, which he called a “100 per cent Iranian proxy.” Washington recognises Israel’s right to self‑defence.
The past 24 hours in summary
Over the past 24 hours, the diplomatic process has sent conflicting signals: Trump is simultaneously bringing a deal closer and pushing it away. Military preparations on both sides point to deep mutual mistrust. Israel, doubting the success of negotiations, is preparing for unilateral action.
Lebanon remains a smouldering front where the ceasefire has not stopped the bloodshed.