ANKARA (Realist English). Turkey is closely monitoring the ongoing protests in Iran, wary that prolonged unrest could destabilise a key neighbour and trigger wider regional consequences, Turkish officials and analysts say.
Despite decades of rivalry and competing interests across Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, Ankara views the preservation of Iran’s territorial integrity and overall stability as a strategic priority. “Despite the underlying tension and competition in Iran–Turkey relations, preserving Iran’s stability is essential for Turkey,” said Mustafa Caner, an Iran analyst at the SETA.
That position was reflected in remarks by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who said Ankara does not expect the protests to lead to the collapse of the Iranian government. Speaking on television on Saturday, Fidan described the demonstrations as smaller in scale than Iran’s 2022 protest movement — an assessment disputed by some Iranian analysts, who argue they are the largest since at least 1999.
Fidan said Iran has paid a heavy price over the past three decades for its ambitious regional and global policies, pointing to the impact of Western sanctions on the country’s economy. He acknowledged that Iran’s young and educated population faces mounting economic and social pressures, adding that the protests “send a very strong message to the regime”.
At the same time, Fidan rejected the idea that the unrest would deliver the outcome sought by Israel — the toppling of the Iranian government. He accused foreign actors of exploiting the situation, saying that Iran’s rivals were manipulating the protests from abroad. “Mossad does not hide it; they are openly calling on the Iranian people to revolt against the regime,” he said.
Turkish analysts say Ankara is trying to strike a careful balance. Serhan Afacan, head of the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara, said Turkey recognises the legitimacy of many protesters’ economic grievances but believes recent demonstrations have increasingly included provocative acts, such as attacks on mosques.
According to Afacan, Ankara is unwilling to take any position that Tehran could interpret as aligning with US or Israeli calls for regime change. “Turkey is concerned about the destabilisation of Iran in general, not specifically the Islamic Republic as a regime, and the risk of the country sliding into chaos,” he said.
Those fears are rooted in hard security considerations. During last year’s 12-day war between Iran and Israel, Turkey increased border security amid concerns over a potential influx of refugees. Officials privately signalled that Ankara would not repeat its open-door approach from the Syrian civil war, which resulted in millions of refugees settling in Turkey.
Instability in Iran also raises concerns about Kurdish militancy. Iran’s Kurdish population, estimated at around eight million, lives largely near the Turkish border. While Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) entered a peace process in 2024, tensions remain, particularly in Syria. Ankara is also wary of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), which it views as the PKK’s Iranian affiliate.
Caner warned that turmoil in Iran could allow such groups to expand their influence, potentially disrupting Turkey’s military operations in Syria and Iraq. He added that the spread of violence in areas populated by Kurdish, Baluch and Arab minorities reinforced Ankara’s concerns.
Looking ahead, Turkish officials argue that Iran’s best path forward lies in easing tensions with the West and improving relations with its neighbours. Fidan said Ankara supports a negotiated settlement between Iran and key international actors, particularly the United States, describing it as essential for regional stability.
He added that Iran now needs “genuine reconciliation and cooperation” with neighbouring countries, suggesting that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could potentially play a role in helping Tehran recalibrate its regional ties.