WASHINGTON (Realist English). US intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran, during the current conflict, has demonstrated the ability to completely shut down the Strait of Hormuz and can do so again at any time. This was reported by CNN, citing three sources familiar with the assessment.
“We have effectively handed Iran de facto control over the strait – a weapon more powerful than any nuclear bomb,” one source said, stressing that the war has fundamentally changed Tehran’s thinking about using such tactics in the future.
The Strait as a Weapon: A New Balance of Power
According to intelligence, Iran not only demonstrated the ability to shut down the strait but also retained a significant portion of its arsenal for this purpose: missiles, drones, launchers, and hundreds of fast-attack boats that continue to harass vessels and can be used for minelaying. In addition, Tehran is rebuilding its military-industrial base faster than Washington expected and has already deployed new drone production.
Regardless of the framework agreement due to be officially signed on Friday to open the key artery, the Iranians have been “hardened” by the conflict and now view their ability to close the strait as a permanent lever of pressure. Analysts believe Tehran is more likely to resort to this step in the future.
Trump’s Miscalculation
President Donald Trump’s administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to shut down the strait. Officials believed that such a move would inflict greater damage on Iran itself — a view reinforced by years of Tehran’s empty threats. Washington also assumed that China would use its influence to deter Iran from taking this step.
However, in the early days of the conflict, it became clear that the administration had miscalculated. “Losing control of the strait will be the biggest mistake of this era, because it is a card that the US cannot overplay without entering a full-scale war,” said a fourth source involved in military planning.
According to sources, Iran closed the strait after Trump stated that the goal of the war was regime change. In Tehran, this was perceived as an existential threat, justifying unprecedented escalation. Iran did not close the strait immediately after the first strikes but waited several days to gauge US intentions.
‘Nuclear Option’ and the Global Economy
Beyond control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has developed an economic “nuclear option” in case negotiations with the US fail: enlisting the Houthis to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. This would create a “double blockade” effect that, according to sources, could “completely blow up the world economy.”
US officials acknowledge that Iran has also learned to strike energy infrastructure in the Gulf states with precision, giving it another asymmetric tool of influence.
The Agreement and Reality
Although Trump has said the strait is “already partially open” and will be fully open on Friday, he has said nothing about how the deal would prevent a future re-closure – especially after the US lifts its naval blockade and returns to a normal regional presence.
A senior US official told CNN that Iran would receive “no benefits” from the framework agreement if the strait does not remain open, and that the US would roll back the blockade proportionally to the restoration of shipping.
“If Iran complies, relief follows, and US leverage is maintained throughout,” the official said.
At the same time, Washington acknowledges that Tehran is already paying a political price for closing the strait: it has angered China and the Gulf states. However, according to intelligence assessments, the leverage has proved too effective for Iran to abandon.