TEHRAN (Realist English). US President Donald Trump has expressed optimism about peace talks with Iran expected this week.
“We are going to end up with a great deal… they have no choice,” Trump said in a CNBC interview on April 21.
However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Tehran had not yet decided whether to participate in talks in Pakistan, citing “unacceptable actions” by the US side. Trump repeated that he does “not want” to extend the existing ceasefire, which expires on April 22, and again threatened to attack Iran’s infrastructure if Tehran refuses a deal.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that “blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire.” Oil prices jumped 3.1% and stock indexes fell amid uncertainty over the talks.
Israel said that Hezbollah fired rockets at its forces in southern Lebanon on the evening of April 21 for the first time since a US‑backed ceasefire went into effect last week.
‘Say goodbye to oil production’: IRGC warning
The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, Majid Mousavi, warned that neighbouring countries would have to “say goodbye to oil production in the Middle East” if a new series of strikes takes place. In a statement to state media, he said: “Iran’s southern neighbours should know that if their territories and facilities are used in the service of enemies to attack the Iranian nation, they must say goodbye to oil production in the Middle East.”
The warning came amid uncertainty over whether a second round of talks between the US and Iran would take place this week, as the ceasefire expires on April 22.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stressed that Iran would not negotiate under threat and warned of demonstrating “new cards on the battlefield”.
Oil and stock markets
Markets reacted to the uncertainty with sharp fluctuations. Oil prices closed higher as investors priced in the risk of talks collapsing and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continuing.
Brent crude rose 3.8% to $92.13 per barrel, while WTI gained 2.8% to $92.13.
Araghchi: port blockade is an ‘act of war’
The Iranian foreign minister again stated that the US had violated the ceasefire.
“Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire. Striking a commercial vessel and taking its crew hostage is an even greater violation,” Araghchi wrote on X.
He added that “Iran knows how to neutralise restrictions, how to defend its interests, and how to resist intimidation.”
Nuclear file: sticking points
The future of Iran’s nuclear programme remains the central issue in the talks. The US administration continues to insist on tough conditions. Washington demands the removal of all 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% from the country — enough to produce about 11 nuclear warheads. In addition, the US insists on a complete and indefinite renunciation of Iran’s right to enrich uranium.
In exchange, Tehran seeks the immediate and complete lifting of economic sanctions and the unfreezing of its foreign assets.
Iran, for its part, has proposed a compromise option — halting enrichment for 10 years and then allowing low‑enriched production — but this plan has not found a positive response from the US.
Iranian tankers bypass US blockade
According to cargo tracking firm Vortexa, at least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade since it was imposed, including several carrying Iranian oil — despite Trump’s claims of the blockade being a “tremendous success”. The blockade was imposed on April 13 and was expanded on April 16 to cover all Iranian vessels on the high seas.
Iranian judiciary rejects Trump’s claims
Iran’s judiciary has rejected Trump’s claim that eight women are at risk of execution. Earlier, Trump called on the authorities to release them, saying it would be “a great start to our negotiations”. A judiciary statement said that some of these women have already been released, while others face only prison terms.
Israel accuses Hezbollah of violating ceasefire
Beyond the Iranian track, a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon is scheduled for April 23 in Washington. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that on the evening of April 21, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon for the first time since the US‑mediated ceasefire came into effect last week.
A drone launched by the group was also intercepted. Hezbollah said it struck northern Israel with rockets and drones in response to more than 200 ceasefire violations by Israel. Israeli troops remain in a so‑called security zone 10 km deep inside Lebanese territory.