BEIJING (Realist English). China’s exports regained strength in June, rising by 5.8% year-on-year as manufacturers rushed to capitalize on a temporary tariff truce with the United States before an August deadline, according to customs data released on Friday. The figure exceeded expectations from a Reuters poll, which had forecast 5.0% growth.
Imports also recovered modestly, climbing 1.1% after a 3.4% drop in May, though the rebound was slightly below economists’ expectations of a 1.3% gain.
The pickup in trade comes amid ongoing efforts by Beijing and Washington to stabilize ties. In May, negotiators reached a fragile ceasefire during talks in Geneva, pausing further escalation in the tariff dispute that had recently intensified under U.S. President Donald Trump.
That pause, however, remains tenuous. Trump has since imposed a 40% tariff on U.S.-bound transhipments via Vietnam—a workaround used by many Chinese firms—and has threatened a blanket 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries, directly impacting China. Analysts warn that Beijing could also be affected by U.S. measures targeting third-country supply chains used for Chinese goods.
China now faces a critical August 12 deadline to secure a more durable deal with Washington before further tariffs potentially resume.
Complicating matters, trade tensions with the European Union are also mounting. Ahead of a key summit later this month, Brussels accused China of distorting global markets with industrial overcapacity and supporting Russia’s wartime economy—raising the prospect of coordinated Western economic pressure.
Despite these risks, China’s trade surplus widened in June to $114.7 billion, up from $103.2 billion the previous month, offering short-term relief for policymakers navigating an increasingly hostile global environment.
