VIENNA (Realist English). Opec+ has agreed to raise oil production by a modest 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, easing market tensions after reports of a much larger supply boost rattled prices last week.
Ahead of the meeting, speculation that the producer alliance could approve an increase of up to 500,000 barrels a day triggered a sharp sell-off in crude. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell more than 8% over the week — its steepest drop in three months — closing below $65 a barrel. Opec+ later called the reports “inaccurate and misleading.”
“Today’s decision wasn’t about barrels, it was about signalling,” said Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former Opec official. “Opec+ stepped carefully after witnessing how nervous the market has become.”
The restrained increase is likely to be welcomed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been pressing the group to boost supply to ease global prices, cool inflation, and reduce Russia’s energy revenues. The move also comes ahead of a planned visit to Washington by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November.
In March, Opec+ abandoned its policy of withholding millions of barrels per day to prop up prices. November’s hike matches the increase approved for October, maintaining a gradual approach to unwinding production curbs.
Despite forecasts that global demand could not absorb much more crude, prices have remained relatively stable, helped by China’s strategic stockpiling. Since April, Opec+ has raised its collective output ceiling by 2.67 million barrels per day, while Brent prices have largely traded between $67 and $70 over the summer.
Actual output, however, has lagged far behind quotas. Some members — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates — delivered only about one-third of their combined quota increase in August, lifting exports by roughly 540,000 barrels per day.
Rystad’s León estimated that since March, production growth has reached only about 60% of the announced targets, citing both penalties for past overproduction and technical limitations among several members.
“Going forward, production increases are likely to be smaller,” León said, “as some countries may simply not have the capacity to pump more.”
