MOSCOW (Realist English). Leading researcher at IMEMO RAS, Candidate of Historical Sciences Stanislav Ivanov has analysed for Realist English the possible consequences of the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+, officially announced on 1 May 2026.
In the expert’s opinion, the Abu Dhabi decision, although unprecedented for one of the founders of the cartel, will not lead to an immediate collapse in oil prices or a “domino effect” among other members of the organisation. The key takeaways of the analysis are below.
Why did the UAE leave OPEC?
The UAE authorities officially announced that from 1 May 2026 the country had withdrawn from the international intergovernmental organisations of oil exporters OPEC and OPEC+, created to regulate oil production and export volumes on the global market. The system of distribution of oil production and export quotas created by the OPEC and OPEC+ member countries, although imperfect, still makes it possible to maintain a balance of interests between oil exporters and importers, i.e. to regulate supply and demand on the global oil market and, accordingly, to maintain oil prices acceptable to all countries.
The first comments by politicians and experts on the UAE authorities’ decision to leave OPEC are somewhat contradictory. Some predict a possible breakup of the aforementioned organisations, since the UAE is one of the founding members of OPEC and a leading global oil exporter, and other OPEC and OPEC+ members may follow its example, i.e., a so-called “domino effect” cannot be ruled out, as was the case with the “Arab Spring” of 2011.
Moreover, a sharp increase in oil exports by the UAE and a number of its followers could allegedly sharply reduce oil prices, which roughly doubled after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (from 60 to 115 per barrel). Other experts, on the contrary, rush to reassure public opinion and call the Abu Dhabi decision a long‑overdue event that will not significantly affect the global energy market.
Obviously, the truth lies somewhere in between. On the one hand, the situation cannot be overdramatised; on the other hand, this Abu Dhabi decision cannot be considered an ordinary event in global energy. After the UAE leaves OPEC, 11 participants remain in the organisation, and the same number of countries are in its expanded OPEC+ format. It should be borne in mind that the UAE is not the first state to leave OPEC. Angola, Qatar, Ecuador and Indonesia have previously left the organisation.
According to the OPEC 2025 report, the UAE ranked fourth in the organisation in terms of crude oil production (2.9 million barrels per day, or 11.1% of total OPEC oil production) and fifth in terms of proven oil reserves (113 billion barrels, 9.1%). In terms of crude oil exports, the UAE’s share in OPEC reaches 14.3% (third place).
In value terms, the UAE accounts for 11.9% of OPEC’s total oil exports (77.7 billion out of 652 billion), second only to Saudi Arabia and Iraq in this indicator. The UAE has oil production infrastructure of about 4.85 million b/d, while the OPEC+ quota kept them at 3.4 million b/d.
The Emirates have long expressed dissatisfaction with OPEC’s overall strategy. Their plans envisage increasing oil production to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, whereas the organisation’s quota system prevented the implementation of these plans.
The UAE authorities’ key argument is that the oil self‑restriction mechanism has ceased to influence global prices for this commodity. Non‑OPEC and non‑OPEC+ countries — primarily the United States, Guyana, Norway and others — freely increased production, disregarding cartel policy. OPEC’s share of the global oil market has dropped from 60% to 29% in recent years.
In addition, since April 2025, eight leading OPEC+ countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and Algeria) began to exit voluntary oil production cuts, and already in September of that year the OPEC+ “group of eight” completely exited the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million b/d, one year ahead of the original plan.
And on 3 May of this year, seven OPEC+ countries with voluntary restrictions — Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman — decided to increase the maximum permitted oil production level in June 2025 by 188 thousand barrels per day.
Political background
Undoubtedly, behind Abu Dhabi’s strategically important decision in the field of oil production and exports there is also a political component. It should not be forgotten that during the open phase of the armed conflict between the United States (Israel) and Iran, UAE territory was repeatedly subjected to Iranian missile and drone strikes.
Iranian drones also attacked a tanker belonging to the Emirati state company Abu Dhabi National Oil. Based on these hostile acts, Abu Dhabi considers it inadvisable to remain in OPEC and OPEC+ together with Iran. It should also be recalled that since 2020 the UAE has been a participant in the so‑called Abraham Accords recognising the State of Israel and establishing diplomatic and other relations with it.
Jerusalem has already actively supported the UAE in strengthening its air and missile defence systems in the face of Iranian attacks on the monarchy’s infrastructure.
The UAE has also become a member of a new US‑led regional alliance, QUAD‑2 (USA, Israel, India, UAE). It cannot be ruled out that Washington pushed the Emirati authorities to decide to leave OPEC and start increasing oil exports to the global market in order to stop further price rises for this strategic commodity. After all, the main importers of Emirati oil are the United States, EU countries, Japan and India.
Moreover, the UAE is actively investing in the US energy sector, with a focus on shale gas and LNG, planning to invest up to $1.4 trillion in these projects over ten years. The Mubadala fund and ADNOC are buying stakes in US gas projects for the first time, confirming the deal in March 2026.
An important factor is Abu Dhabi’s ability to export oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz through the port of Fujairah. An existing oil pipeline on the Gulf of Oman coast provides exports of about 1.5–2 million b/d, and a second pipeline along the same route is under construction.
This makes the UAE independent of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and its blockade. To some extent, this is also Abu Dhabi’s response to its regional rival, Saudi Arabia, which plans to expand the capacity of the East‑West pipeline to transport its oil through the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, also circumventing the Strait of Hormuz.
It is no coincidence that after a certain break, Iranian cruise missiles and drones again attacked the oil terminal at the port of Fujairah on 4 May 2026, causing a fire when an Iranian drone crashed. The purpose of these attacks is to limit Abu Dhabi’s ability to circumvent export restrictions during the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Why didn’t oil prices fall?
Contrary to the forecasts of some pseudo‑experts about a possible sharp drop in oil prices following the UAE’s latest decision, the oil market hardly reacted. Futures contracts did not fall but even rose somewhat — primarily due to the continuing US blockade of the Iranian coast, which was to be expected.
After all, to increase oil exports, the Emirates need to complete the construction of an additional pipeline and terminal at the port of Fujairah, which will take considerable time.
The situation is roughly the same for Riyadh’s ability to transport oil through the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains the main reason for sustainably high oil prices on the global market.
What’s next?
Overall, the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC can be recognised as a sovereign right of this state, which serves its national interests. The desire of the Emirati authorities to take advantage of the oil shortage on the global market, compensate for their losses from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and replenish the state budget is quite natural.
Other Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, are also considering options for further expanding alternative export routes for their hydrocarbons, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. It is possible that the current oil crisis could facilitate the construction of new pipelines in the region and an increase in renewable energy investment around the world. The share of “green energy” in China already exceeds 50% of total electricity generation.
The EU countries, the United States and the Gulf monarchies are following this path. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the region’s leaders in the transition to solar, wind and nuclear energy. They are investing tens of billions of dollars in these projects and by 2030 plan, like China today, to achieve a 50% share of renewables in their energy mix.
Stanislav Ivanov — Candidate of Historical Sciences, Leading Researcher at IMEMO RAS
