MOSCOW (Realist English). Comrade Xi Jinping’s historic visit to Moscow has come to an end. This visit caused a storm of emotions. The fear of some, the stormy joy of others and the bewilderment of others.
And such an emotional spread is not accidental. This is exactly a historic visit. A strategic alliance of the two countries has emerged. And this is the most dangerous scenario for the United States. This was also warned by President Bush-Sr., who considered the breakup of the union of the USSR and the PRC to be his greatest success in the international arena.
And, indeed, such an alliance changes the world. Each of our countries is in some ways inferior to the United States, and in some ways superior to them. We are obviously lagging behind in the economy, but we are the only ones besides the United States who possess fundamental science and surpass them in the field of nuclear weapons. China is ahead of the United States in the real economy, but lags behind in science and the military.
Washington is capable of defeating our countries individually. Russia is under economic pressure, under which it is difficult to maintain the military and scientific level. Judging by the situation around Taiwan, military force can be used against China.
The union of Russia and China is able to adequately respond to US pressure in all three areas, and potentially become stronger than America. Therefore, its appearance may mean the end of the American era. And without their leadership, the United States cannot exist. They sell security, “buy our planes so that they don’t bomb you”, “and buy the dollar”. But these goods are in demand while the USA is the leader, and no one will buy them without their leadership.
So: “Hello, a new era.”
But two questions arise: “How strong is the union? And is there no danger for Russia in it?”.
Our alliance with Beijing is a forced one. The Chinese, whose trade turnover with the United States is greater than the one with Russia, would like to maintain relations with Washington, but the Americans, with their stupidity and rudeness, simply do not give Beijing such an opportunity. But the fact is that this stupidity and rudeness are not accidental: the United States can maintain leadership only by weakening the PRC. Antagonistic contradictions between the leader and the candidate for leadership are inevitable, which means that China’s alliance with Russia is inevitable.
So the union is strong by necessity.
As for the danger, it certainly exists, but it is more potential than real. We exchange fundamentally different potentials. Russia is a military and scientific power, and China is an economic one. It is impossible to do without each other or to cone each other.
Here the danger is more subtle. The results of our union will be implemented in the economy, and the economy in our union is mainly Chinese, so the main beneficiary will be the PRC. In this regard, at some point the Chinese may be tempted to make our relations less equal.
But this is not possible in the near future. They need us too much in the confrontation with the United States.
And in the long run it is unlikely. The Chinese have a different concept of dominance than the US. They do not seek to impose their position and annoy an ally. Beijing prefers to dominate from behind the scenes and is ready to receive less, but with a guarantee and for many years. Of course, if we behave as stupidly as in the alliance with the United States, striving to do everything for them, forgetting about ourselves, then we will get a tough position of the PRC, they do not respect those who do not respect themselves.
But if we proceed from our own interests, everything will be fine.
The dragon is strong and cruel, but if he sees an equal, he is ready to behave sensibly. The main thing is that the bear behaves reasonably. It all depends on us.
Dmitry Zhuravlev is the Director of the Institute of Regional Problems, special to The Realist English
