NEW YORK (Realist English). While global population growth is slowing, Africa stands out for its relatively young and rapidly growing population.
The Pew Research Center, based on UN data, has presented five key facts about demographic changes on the continent. The latest figures are from 2023, while projections for 2024 and beyond are based on UN calculations.
Africa’s population has grown six‑fold since 1950
Since 1950, the continent’s population has increased more than six‑fold – a rise of about 1.3 billion people.
According to the UN’s medium variant projection, this trend will continue until the end of the century, and by 2100 Africa will be home to 3.8 billion people.
Under the high variant scenario (fertility 0.5 children above the medium variant), the number would reach 5.2 billion.
Even under the low variant scenario (0.5 children below the medium variant), the continent’s population would total 2.7 billion by 2100, peaking at 2.8 billion around 2087.
Today, 28% of all young people in the world live in Africa
As of 2026, Africa accounts for 28% of the global population under 25 and 19% of the world’s total population. In 1950, that share was only 10%.
According to projections, Africa will surpass Asia in youth population by 2073, and by 2100, 46% of all people under 25 will live on the African continent (compared with 39% in Asia).
By 2100, Africa will have 12 of the world’s 25 most populous countries
Nigeria, already Africa’s most populous country and the sixth‑largest in the world, will rise to fourth place by the end of the century.
It will be followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (5th), Ethiopia (7th) and Tanzania (9th). Europe, by contrast, will lose ground: by 2100, Russia will be the only European country among the top 25, dropping from 9th place to 17th due to population decline.
India and China are projected to remain the world’s most populous countries in 2100.
Africa is the only region in the world where fertility exceeds replacement level
The replacement‑level fertility (the rate needed to maintain population size) is estimated at about 2.1 children per woman. In Africa, the rate stands at about 3.9 – significantly above the global average.
However, there are wide variations within the continent: Chad’s fertility rate is 5.8 children per woman, while Tunisia’s is just 1.8.
UN projections indicate a gradual decline in African fertility: to 2.8 by 2050, and to 2.0 by the end of the century. For comparison, the peak in 1972 was 6.7 children per woman.
Median age in Africa will rise from 19 to 35 by 2100
Due to falling fertility and rising life expectancy, the age structure is changing.
Although the share of youth (under 25) has historically been about 60%, by 2100 it will fall to 35%.
At the same time, the share of adults (25–64) will rise to 51%, while the elderly (65+) will reach 15% – more than triple the current share.
Thus, Africa is gradually moving closer to global demographic patterns, where the adult population has been the largest age group for many years.
