RABAT (Realist English). The countries of North Africa are undergoing a fundamental shift in their foreign policy preferences.
According to large-scale studies by Afrobarometer and Arab Barometer, covering tens of thousands of respondents in 2025–2026, public opinion in the region demonstrates a steady drift away from traditional Western partners towards new global centres of power, primarily China.
The United States is losing trust against the backdrop of the wars in Gaza and Iran; Russia has so far been unable to convert its political presence into public support; and the European Union maintains its position thanks to economic dependence but is facing growing scepticism.
Overall Picture: China Pulls Ahead
According to summary data from Afrobarometer (38 African countries) and Arab Barometer (8 countries in the Middle East and North Africa), the positive perception of global players in the region looks like this:
| Centre of Power | Share of Positive Ratings (regional average) | Source |
| China | 62 % | Afrobarometer |
| European Union | 50 % | Afrobarometer |
| USA | 52% on average across Africa | Afrobarometer — but Arab Barometer shows a sharp decline |
| Russia | 36 % | Afrobarometer |
Note: The Afrobarometer data are averages across 38 African countries (published March 2026). The Arab Barometer data (2025–2026) reflect the situation specifically in the Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East.
It is important to distinguish between the two data sets: Afrobarometer covers all of Africa and gives a “broad-brush” picture, while Arab Barometer focuses specifically on the Arab countries of the region. In both cases, the trends coincide: China leads, the US is losing ground, the EU is stable, and Russia lags behind.
European Union: Economic Dependence Amid Growing Scepticism
The European Union remains the largest trading partner for most Maghreb countries. For Tunisia, for example, the EU accounts for about two‑thirds of exports and 45% of imports (2024–2025 data). Algeria conducts more than 50% of its trade turnover with the EU, and Algerian gas deliveries to the EU have increased as Russian fuel has been phased out.
However, economic dependence does not always translate into trust:
- Morocco: According to an Afrobarometer survey published in late May 2026, 69% of Moroccans rate the EU’s influence on their country as positive. This is the highest score among all foreign players in Morocco. At the same time, 61% view the African Union positively.
- General trend: Arab Barometer records an “erosion of Western legitimacy” in the region. The public increasingly believes that the US and key European allies act in a one‑sided manner, selectively observing international law. The EU is still perceived somewhat better than the US.
United States: A Historic Collapse of Trust
The war in Gaza and the subsequent US‑Israeli aggression against Iran have dealt a devastating blow to Washington’s reputation in the Arab world.
According to Arab Barometer Wave IX (surveys conducted from September to December 2025, more than 10,000 interviews in eight countries), approval of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy in the Arab world is at an historic low. Only 14% of respondents in Tunisia and 12% in Jordan and Palestine rate his actions positively.
Comparative data for six Arab countries (published by Arab Barometer):
| Country | Positive attitude toward China | Positive attitude toward the US | Gap in favour of China |
| Algeria | 60 % | <33% | >27 p.p. |
| Morocco | 52 % | 28 % | 24 p.p. |
| Tunisia | 50 % | <33% | >17 p.p. |
| Lebanon | 43 % | <33% | >10 p.p. |
| Jordan | 35 % | <33% | ~2 p.p. |
| Libya | 34 % | 14 % | 20 p.p. |
Source: Arab Barometer survey in six Arab countries (2025)
As the table shows, China leads the United States in all six countries, and in Libya the gap reaches 20 percentage points (34% vs. 14%). It is also noteworthy that Arabs fear US economic power much more than China’s: in Lebanon, 47% consider US economic power a serious threat, compared to only 26% for China.
Afrobarometer gives higher figures for the US (52% positive ratings across 38 African countries overall), but this is an average for the entire continent, including sub‑Saharan Africa, where anti‑American sentiment is less pronounced.
Key conclusion: Arab Barometer notes a “historic collapse of Washington’s popularity” in the Arab world. The US is perceived as a one‑sided power that violates international law and supports Israel – the main irritant for the Arab street.
China: The Absolute Leader of Public Sympathy
China confidently holds first place in terms of trust among the population of North Africa. Surveys show:
- In Algeria, 60% of respondents view China’s influence positively.
- In Morocco, this figure reaches 60% according to Afrobarometer and 52% according to Arab Barometer – the discrepancy is explained by different samples.
- In Tunisia, sympathy for China reaches 69% – one of the highest scores in the Arab world.
According to Afrobarometer, across Africa as a whole, 62% of respondents view China’s influence positively, placing it ahead of all other global players.
Remarkably, residents of the region do not see China’s economic expansion as a threat: only 13% of Algerians and 21% of Tunisians consider Chinese economic influence a serious problem, whereas for the US the analogous figures are 31% and 43%, respectively.
Russia: Growing Presence, Modest Sympathy
Despite Moscow’s active diplomatic and military‑technical expansion in Africa, its image in the public consciousness remains contradictory.
Afrobarometer data (38 African countries, March 2026):
- Only 36% of respondents rate Russia’s influence positively.
- 23% rate it negatively.
- The highest level of uncertainty: 42% could not give an assessment (the highest among all global players).
The situation in North Africa varies by country:
| Country | Positive rating of Russia | Neutral / no answer |
| Morocco | 34% (down from 37% in 2019–2021) | 50 % |
| Algeria | No data – but Russia is a traditional important military partner | — |
| Tunisia | Ratings higher than in Morocco, but lower than for China | — |
Source: Afrobarometer for Morocco, 2025–2026 surveys
In Morocco, according to the survey, 74% favour complete neutrality in the Russian‑Ukrainian conflict (with 80% aware of the war). This is higher than the African average (72%). Notably, according to Arab Barometer, over the same period, approval of the late Ayatollah Khamenei’s foreign policy in Morocco rose from 23% in previous waves to 35%.
General conclusion: Russia remains behind China, the United States and the European Union in terms of public sympathy. Its main problem is the high proportion of undecided respondents (who “have not heard enough” or have no opinion), indicating the weakness of Moscow’s “soft power” in the region.
Country‑by‑Country: How Governments Navigate Between Interests
Morocco: Multi‑vector pragmatism
Rabat’s foreign policy has for many years been built on the principle of “not tying itself to any bloc”. As a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace analysis notes: “Morocco refrains from joining any geopolitical bloc and stays on the sidelines of US‑China rivalry.” Public opinion broadly supports this course: 74% of Moroccans believe the country should remain neutral in global conflicts. 89% of respondents oppose normalising relations with Israel. Meanwhile, a positive attitude toward the US (59% in one poll) coexists with sharp rejection of Washington’s Middle East policy.
Algeria: Balancing act
Algeria has traditionally been considered one of Russia’s closest partners in the region, especially in the military sphere. However, as reported in an analytical note from February 2025, Algeria has begun recalibrating its relations in an effort to diversify its ties. The authorities are negotiating with the EU to revise trade agreements and have signed a memorandum of understanding with the US on military cooperation. At the same time, 60% of the population view China positively, surpassing support for any other power.
Tunisia: Authoritarian drift amid pro‑Western elites
In Tunisia, public sympathy for China reaches 69% – the highest figure in the Arab world. The EU remains the main economic partner (67% of exports), but approval of US policy has fallen to 14%. The authorities formally maintain pragmatic relations with the West, but the authoritarian drift of recent years is causing concern in Brussels and Washington.
Libya: hostage to geopolitical struggle
In fragmented Libya, foreign policy preferences are split between rival camps. The eastern government (LNA of Marshal Haftar) is supported by Russia, the UAE and Egypt, while the western government in Tripoli is backed by Turkey, Qatar and Italy. Public opinion, as far as it can be measured, shows low trust in the US (14%) and moderate sympathy for China (34%). Russia and China have repeatedly blocked UN Security Council decisions unfavourable to Haftar, thereby strengthening their positions.
Egypt: balancing between centres of power
Egypt under President Abdel Fattah al‑Sisi maintains a multi‑vector approach. The country is a member of BRICS while simultaneously receiving annual military aid from the US ($1.3 billion). In an Arab Barometer survey (2025), 36% of Egyptians rated Chinese policy as better than American policy – the highest among the countries surveyed. However, in terms of support for the West, Egypt lags behind other Maghreb countries.
Conclusions
- China is the absolute leader of public sympathy in North Africa, outpacing the US in the region by 20–30 percentage points. Residents see Beijing as a “rising power capable of counterbalancing Western bias.”
- The United States is experiencing a historic collapse of trust because of the wars in Gaza and Iran. According to Arab Barometer, approval of Washington’s foreign policy has plummeted to single‑digit or low double‑digit figures in most countries of the region.
- The European Union remains economically significant, but its political influence is waning. In Morocco, 69% of the population rate the EU positively, but across the region, dissatisfaction with the “selective observance of international law” by Western countries is growing.
- Russia faces a deficit of public trust: only 36% of Africans overall view its influence positively, and 42% have no opinion. Even in Morocco, where Russian influence has traditionally been weak, almost half of respondents could not give an assessment.
- The Palestinian issue remains a “litmus test” for foreign policy preferences. Countries and politicians perceived as supporting Palestinians (or at least condemning Israel) receive an extra credit of trust. This explains why China and Russia sometimes “win” over the United States in the eyes of the Arab street.
