WASHINGTON (Realist English). Christianity as a whole is losing adherents due to religious switching (changing one’s faith in adulthood compared to childhood upbringing), but within Christianity, Catholicism and Protestantism are showing divergent trends.
According to Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 2024 across 24 countries, Catholicism has lost more people than it has gained in nearly all the countries studied.
Protestantism, however, has seen a net gain from switching in almost as many places as it has seen a net loss. The study is based on data from the Spring 2024 Global Attitudes Survey and the Religious Landscape Study of U.S. adults conducted from 17 July 2023 to 4 March 2024.
Catholicism: mass exodus with minimal inflow
In 12 of the 24 countries surveyed, the majority of the population was raised Catholic – ranging from 59% in Hungary to 96% in Poland. Many of those raised Catholic remain faithful throughout their lives – for example, 92% of all Polish adults are lifelong Catholics.
However, in 15 countries, former Catholics (those raised Catholic but no longer identify as such as adults) make up 10% or more of the total population. Relatively few adults join the Catholic Church after being raised in another religion or with no religion.
Key finding: In 21 out of 24 countries, more people have left Catholicism since childhood than have joined it. The only country with a net gain is Hungary (5% joined, 2% left). In Kenya and South Korea, the numbers of those who joined and left are roughly similar.
Example of Italy: 22% of all adults were raised Catholic but no longer consider themselves such, while only 1% were not raised Catholic but later joined the religion. The net loss of the Catholic population in Italy due to switching is 21 percentage points. People leaving Catholicism tend to join Protestantism or become religiously unaffiliated (atheists, agnostics, “nothing in particular”).
In Chile, 19% of all adults are former Catholics who have become “nones”. In Kenya, Brazil, Ghana, Nigeria and the Philippines, former Catholics are more likely to have joined Protestantism than to have become “nones”.
Despite the losses, Catholics still make up the majority of the population in 8 out of 24 countries. The largest share is in Poland (92%), followed by the Philippines (80%) and Italy (69%).
Protestantism: Latin America as a growth zone
Unlike Catholicism, several countries show a net inflow of Protestants due to switching. This is particularly notable in Latin America. For example, in Brazil, 15% of adults have joined Protestantism (not having been raised in it), while 6% have left Protestantism. The net gain is 9 percentage points. Most of those who switched into Protestantism are former Catholics. At the same time, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Germany have seen large net losses of Protestantism.
Former Protestants are most likely to become religiously unaffiliated. For instance, in Australia, 15% of adults are former Protestants who are now unaffiliated; only 1% have converted to Catholicism or other religions.
In the end, after all the switching, Protestants make up no more than a quarter of the population in 16 out of 24 countries. Only two countries have Protestant majorities: Ghana (62%) and Kenya (55%).
Data on Russia
Information about Russia is not included in the Pew study, as the Pew Research Center did not conduct surveys in the Russian Federation as part of this cycle. Various sources provide different estimates, but the overall picture is as follows: there are between 140,000 and 1.5 million Catholics in Russia, and between 1 and 3 million Protestants, each group accounting for no more than 2% of the population.
Catholics in Russia
Estimates vary depending on the method of counting and the source:
- Church data – up to 1.5 million people (including both active parishioners and those baptised Catholic but not participating in parish life). According to the Roman Catholic Church’s own figures, as of early 2022, Russia had 202 parishes and the total number of Catholics was 540,000.
- In a 2023 interview with RIA Novosti, Archbishop Paolo Pezzi estimated the number of baptised Catholics at around 1 million. Some sources put the figure as high as 1.5 million.
- Official data – 140,000 people. This discrepancy is explained by the fact that the government counts only actively practising believers, while the Church uses broader statistics based on baptism. Representatives of the Moscow archdiocese also acknowledge that active parishioners are far fewer – only about 10% of the total.
- Expert estimates – 50,000–100,000. Islamic scholar Roman Silantyev puts the number of Catholics at between 50,000 and 100,000, and Protestants at about 1 million, regarding many religious organisations’ figures as greatly inflated.
Despite the wide range, it is clear that Catholics make up less than 1% of Russia’s population. The overwhelming majority are ethnic Germans, Poles, Lithuanians, and some ethnic Russians who have converted to Catholicism. Catholic parishes are scattered across the country.
Protestants in Russia
Protestants form the second largest Christian community in Russia, but their numbers are also disputed.
- Church data – 1 to 3 million believers. The analytical report “Russian Protestantism” gives a figure of about 3 million. According to the publication “Through Faith to Peace”, there are about 3 million Protestants in Russia, accounting for roughly 2% of the population.
- According to the Slavic Center for Law and Justice, Protestant organisations unite more than 1 million followers. The American website World Population Review also estimates the share of Protestants in Russia at 2% – about 2.5 million people.
- Unlike Catholics, the majority of Russian Protestants are ethnic Russians. The second largest group are ethnic Germans. Protestants are represented among nearly all the peoples of Russia.
- The largest Protestant denomination in Russia is Pentecostalism. Baptists, Evangelical Christians, Lutherans and Adventists are also widely represented.
- Protestants have a well-developed network of communities – there are more than 4,000 registered Protestant religious organisations.
