MOSCOW (Realist English). Over the past three days, Russian foreign policy has developed along several key tracks: strategic rapprochement with China and Iran on the sidelines of BRICS, a tough stance on the Ukrainian settlement, a return to nuclear diplomacy, and an escalation of confrontational rhetoric towards Europe and NATO.
Below is a summary of the main events and statements.
Eastern vector: BRICS in New Delhi and a hydrocarbon signal from Beijing
The central event of the three days was Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s participation in the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi (13–14 May 2026).
The Iranian dossier
Lavrov held a separate meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi. The sides discussed progress in negotiations on the Middle East conflict. Moscow stressed the importance of preserving the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran and declared its readiness to offer “good offices” for de‑escalation.
The Chinese signal
On the eve of President Vladimir Putin’s scheduled visit to Beijing (20 May), the Kremlin announced a “serious step” in energy cooperation with China. Details have not been disclosed, but experts link this to agreements on the “Power of Siberia – 2” pipeline and settlements in national currencies. Beijing, for its part, reaffirmed its readiness to build a “more just world order”.
Ukrainian settlement: Moscow’s conditions and the mediator issue
Ahead of, and after, the two‑day ceasefire (8–9 May) agreed with the United States, the Kremlin set strict parameters for any talks.
Ultimatum on Donbas
On 13 May, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that a ceasefire and the start of peace negotiations are only possible after Ukrainian troops withdraw from Donbas territory. Moscow considers no other scenario.
Europe is not a mediator
Peskov also categorically ruled out the European Union as a potential mediator, calling it a “party to the war on Ukraine’s side”. “The US is the only mediator now,” he stressed, adding that Europeans “do not want and cannot” play that role.
Earlier, on 4 May, he had noted that Russia was entering a “period of very tough confrontation with Europe”.
Nuclear diplomacy: reviving the idea of a “P5” summit
Against the backdrop of escalating international tensions, the Russian Foreign Ministry recalled Vladimir Putin’s long‑standing initiative to hold a summit of the five nuclear powers (Russia, China, the US, the UK, France).
The ministry emphasised that this initiative is becoming particularly relevant due to the “dire state of affairs” in relations between the permanent members of the UN Security Council. No specific timeline has been set, but the signal is directed primarily at Washington.
NATO, the Baltic region and a “window of opportunity”
The rhetoric towards the Atlantic alliance and European countries has been extremely tough in recent days.
NATO on the Kola Peninsula
Russia’s ambassador to Norway, Nikolay Korchunov, warned that NATO’s increased military activity near Russian strategic facilities on the Kola Peninsula threatens a direct military clash.
A Baltic “laboratory”
Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko called the Baltic region a Western “laboratory” for escalating tensions and containing Russia. He also criticised Western attempts to artificially link any regional cooperation with the Ukrainian settlement.
A “window of opportunity” for the Kremlin
Western experts, to whom Russian diplomats refer, warn that the next year or two could become a “window of opportunity” for Russia to test NATO’s resilience – due to a reduction in the US military presence in Europe and the alliance’s internal problems.
The past three days of Russian diplomacy have clearly demonstrated Moscow’s main principle: it conducts dialogue with the West exclusively through Washington, bypassing Brussels. At the same time, the Kremlin is strengthening its “eastern flank” (BRICS, China, Iran) and reminding of nuclear deterrence as its last resort.
Europe, meanwhile, has been pushed to the periphery – only “very tough confrontation” awaits it.
