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Green energy overtakes coal in global power generation

By 2026, the global energy balance has tipped: renewables have surpassed coal-fired generation and now supply almost 20% of all electricity. Solar and wind are becoming cheaper, but storage systems still lag behind demand.

     
May 3, 2026, 23:06
Business & Energy
Green energy overtakes coal in global power generation

Photo: un.org

ABU DHABI (Realist English). April 2026 was a landmark month for global green energy. 

According to data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), the total installed capacity of renewable energy sources reached a record 5,149 GW, having grown by 15.5% in 2025 (with the addition of 692 GW of new capacity). 

Further growth is expected in 2026: in the first three months alone, 693 GW have already been commissioned, and by the end of the year this figure is expected to exceed 800 GW.

The share of renewables in global electricity generation by the end of 2026 is forecast to reach 20%, with green generation overtaking coal for the first time in history.

Global figures: records and shares

According to IRENA, by the end of 2025 global installed renewable capacity stood at 5,149 GW. The increase in 2025 – 692 GW (+15.5%) – was a record. Of that, 85.6% came from solar and wind power. 2026 started even more dynamically: 693 GW were added in January–March alone, already exceeding the total for all of 2025.

According to IEA forecasts, by the end of 2026 renewables will account for almost 20% of global electricity generation – a nearly five‑fold increase from 4% a decade ago. Renewables will overtake coal, whose share will fall to 32%. By 2030, renewables and nuclear together will provide about 50% of global generation, with the share of variable renewable energy (solar and wind) reaching 46%. Moreover, 95% of the growth in global generating capacity through 2026 will come from renewables.

Solar power: the growth leader

Solar energy remains the main driver of the global energy transition.

  • India: Solar generation in the fourth quarter of the 2025/26 financial year grew by 24% year‑on‑year, reaching 48.9 billion kWh (48.9 BU). Peak electricity demand in the country hit a record 256 GW on 26 April 2026 – the highest figure ever.
  • Germany: Solar generation in the summer months of 2026 is expected to average about 16.5 GW, 31% higher than a year earlier. Summer solar generation will rise 17% year‑on‑year.
  • China: Solar generation in March 2026 grew by 10% compared to the same month last year.
  • Europe: Solar production rose by 37% in the Nord Pool region, which, together with wind generation, caused electricity prices to collapse by a factor of 2.4.

IRENA experts note that the cost of generating electricity from renewables is becoming cheaper than from fossil fuels. According to forecasts, by 2026 solar power will become cheaper than coal‑fired generation in Japan.

Wind power: growth and records

Wind power grew by 8.2% (205 TWh) in 2025. On 28 April 2026, wind farms supplied 18.4% of total electricity generation in Europe (up from 11.9% the day before). In the Baltic countries, wind generation increased by 74%, and in the Nord Pool region wind farm output grew by 90%, leading to a price collapse. However, wind’s share in European generation can fluctuate widely: on 16 April it was only 9.6%.

Hydropower: stability and modernisation

Hydropower remains the largest source of “clean” energy, although its share is gradually declining as solar and wind grow.

  • China: Hydro generation in March 2026 rose 10.8% year‑on‑year.
  • Russia: RusHydro’s facilities (including the Boguchanskaya HPP) increased output by 6.7% in the first quarter of 2026, producing 36 billion kWh. The Kama HPP increased output by 14.4% in Q1; the Saratov HPP by 17% .
  • USA: Hydro generation is forecast by the EIA to grow 5% in 2026, reaching about 259 billion kWh, but will remain 1.8% below the ten‑year average because of snow droughts.

Investments and economic trends

April 2026 saw a number of major investment decisions:

  • The European Investment Bank (EIB) approved a €10 billion financing package, of which nearly €2 billion is directed to clean energy, energy efficiency and grid modernisation projects.
  • Fortescue is investing $680 million in green energy development in the Pilbara (Australia) to phase out fossil fuels.
  • Financial analysts at Finam raised the target price of the Invesco Solar ETF to $67.6 (15.4% upside potential, “buy” rating).
  • According to IRENA, the renewable energy sector provided 16.6 million jobs worldwide in 2024.

Competitiveness of renewables

According to an IRENA report, electricity generation from renewables is becoming cheaper than from any type of fossil fuel. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that shifting climate policy to clean energy is the only path to Europe’s energy independence. The growing share of renewables in the power system is restraining electricity price increases. Experts believe that high fossil fuel prices make clean energy more competitive and financially attractive.

Fragility of the energy transition

Vladimir Sidorovich, Director of the New Energy Information and Analytical Centre, notes that the energy transition process is still very fragile. “There is currently no major global company that is not investing in low‑carbon technologies.”

Impact of the wars in Iran and Ukraine

The energy crisis caused by the war in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has paradoxically accelerated the shift to renewables. High gas and oil prices have made green energy more economically attractive.

RENWEX 2026

In April, the RENWEX 2026 exhibition and forum was held in Moscow. Participants discussed the preparation of a new investment cycle for the renewable energy sector, the integration of large volumes of green generation into the power system, and the development of energy storage systems.

The downside: extreme heat

Euronews warns that 2026 is forecast to be one of the hottest years on record, and the situation could be exacerbated by the expected formation of El Niño in the second half of the year. Extreme temperatures could reduce the efficiency of solar panels and cause hydropower disruptions due to droughts.

Share in the global energy mix

Indicator20242025 (actual)2026 (forecast)2030 (forecast)
Renewables share in global generation15 %17 %20 %~30%
Wind and solar (VRE) share~10%~12%~15%46 %
Coal share35 %34 %32 %~25%

By 2030, renewables and nuclear together will provide about 50% of global generation (up from 42% in 2025). Coal generation will continue to decline in 2026‑2030.

Results

April 2026 confirmed a steady trend: global energy is shifting to green energy at record speed. The main drivers are solar and wind power.

However, experts warn: the fragility of the energy transition is evident in the shortage of storage systems, growing demand from data centres and artificial intelligence, and climate risks (droughts, extreme heat).

Nevertheless, the current energy crisis caused by the war in the Middle East is only accelerating the shift to renewables, making them both economically viable and strategically necessary.

EnergyEnergy MarketEnergy TransitionGreen EnergyHydropowerSolar EnergyWind EnergyWorld Economy
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