PARIS (Realist English). In the fourth quarter of 2022, global oil demand will decrease by 110 thousand barrels per day year-on-year and reach 100.8 million barrels per day, which is 130 thousand barrels per day more than last month. This is stated in the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“High fuel consumption in key consumer countries outweighs weak supplies of petrochemical products to Europe and Asia. The growth in oil demand has increased to 2.3 million barrels per day (+140,000 barrels per day) for 2022 as a whole and to 1.7 million barrels per day next year (+100,000 barrels per day), when it will reach 101.6 million barrels per day,” the IEA explained.
The key event of the energy market in December was the decision of the G7 to recognize price caps on Russian oil. Moscow’s response followed in the style of Aikido. If there is a ceiling, then there must be a floor (that is, a ban for Russian oil exporters to sell at a price lower than that which is formed as a result of applying a minimum discount from its global counterpart).
In this context, the reaction of OPEC+ to what is happening was important. Optimists in Russia expected the organization to make a decision to sharply reduce production. Such a decision would be a clear signal to reject the pressure on the market. However, the cartel decided to leave everything as it was – that is, within the planned schedules of October. Now pessimists write that OPEC has bent under the interests of the West.
And realists trust the calculator and remind that the cartel’s plans, which no one canceled, include a reduction of 2 million barrels per day, which is about 2% of global consumption.
There is also a possibility of the development of a gray oil trading market. Its configuration has not yet been determined due to logistics difficulties. Western countries have banned their companies from providing transport, financial and insurance services for tankers transporting oil from Russia at a price above the agreed level.
It is expected that the sea export of crude oil from Russia has halved. However, experts interviewed by the Realist News Agency consider this a temporary phenomenon, since “money will find a way, and the system of neutral intermediaries will adapt to new conditions”.
