TEHRAN (Realist English). US-Iranian negotiations over the past two days have been teetering on the edge of breakdown and possible military confrontation. Washington extended the diplomatic window by a few days, but Tehran is in no hurry to accept the conditions, and the military threat persists.
At the same time, Israel insists on continuing attacks and military preparations, while on the Lebanese front, despite a formal ceasefire, dozens of civilians die daily.
Assessments of progress and official positions
On May 22, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at a press conference in Helsingborg after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, reported “some progress” in talks with Iran. “There has been some progress. I wouldn’t exaggerate it, but I wouldn’t downplay it either,” the Secretary said. He stressed that the sides “have not yet reached the goal” and expressed hope for the success of diplomacy.
However, just hours earlier, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei gave a diametrically opposite assessment. He stated that the talks with the US are “not close to an agreement” and that “the differences between Iran and the US are so deep and numerous that diplomacy will take time.”
Baghaei stressed that the visit of high-level Pakistani intermediaries to Tehran does not mean the diplomatic process has reached a turning point.
Nuclear impasse and ultimatums
The main stumbling block remains the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium — about 400 kg of material enriched to 60%. On May 21, President Donald Trump said: “We’ll probably destroy it after we get it, but we’re not going to let them have it.” At the White House, Trump also underlined his determination to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons: “Right now we’re negotiating and we’ll see what happens. Either we get our way one way or the other. They will not have nuclear weapons.”
According to AJU PRESS, on May 20 Washington presented Tehran with a “final proposal” including terms for maintaining the ceasefire, handling nuclear materials, and guarantees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran rejects these conditions, the Trump administration is considering resuming strikes on energy infrastructure, missile sites, nuclear facilities, and leadership targets.
Iran, for its part, continues to insist on the priority of ending the war. Baghaei explained in an interview with Iranian television: “The talks are aimed at ending hostilities on all fronts, including the Lebanese front. Iran’s nuclear program is not on the agenda at this stage.” According to officials, nuclear dossiers have been set aside due to “excessive US demands.”
On May 23, Al Arabiya, citing sources, reported a draft potential agreement of nine points. The document envisages an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts, guarantees of non-aggression against military, civilian and economic infrastructure, cessation of military operations and information warfare, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference in internal affairs, freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, and the establishment of a joint dispute resolution monitoring mechanism.
Pakistani mediation
Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan Asim Munir and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran to boost mediation efforts. According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, this was Naqvi’s second visit in a week, and Pakistan remains the “primary and official channel” for exchanging messages.
Pressure on Trump
On May 23, Trump canceled his weekend plans in New Jersey and the Bahamas, where his eldest son’s wedding was to take place. In a Truth Social post, he said he would miss the celebration “because of government-related circumstances” and considered it important to remain in the White House “during this important period of time.” A presidential adviser stressed: “The negotiation situation determines everything. Military response options are being actively worked on. The president is requesting updated data and personally tracking the situation in real time.”
On May 22, Republican Senator Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, issued a statement urging Trump to return to military action: “President Trump is getting bad advice pushing him toward a deal with Tehran. The truth is, the operation he launched against Iran must continue until the mission is accomplished.” Wicker also warned that continuing talks risks creating an “image of weakness.”
Israeli-US diplomatic disagreements and leak of uranium capture plan
According to CNN and Axios, a tense phone call took place on May 19 between Trump and Netanyahu. Sources said “Netanyahu’s hair stood on end.” Netanyahu insisted on resuming airstrikes on Iran and weakening Tehran’s military potential, while Trump argued for giving diplomacy more time. Qatar and Pakistan proposed a 30-day negotiation period on the nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
A leak by Israeli right‑wing Channel 14, close to Netanyahu’s government, revealed details of a possible plan to capture enriched uranium near Isfahan. The broadcast was reportedly aired without approval from military censorship, which subsequently demanded the material be removed from the internet.
According to IAEA estimates, more than half of Iran’s uranium (over 200 kg) is stored at a nuclear facility near Isfahan in tunnels more than 90 meters deep. The Washington Post previously reported that a commando plan to extract the uranium, requiring the deployment of hundreds or thousands of troops, had been presented to Trump.
The opposition in the Knesset demanded an emergency meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, accusing the channel of “reckless disclosure of operational and intelligence materials.” Journalist Shimon Riklin rejected the criticism, insisting that nothing “secret” had been revealed.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, according to sources, ordered that weapons-grade enriched uranium remain inside the country, refusing its export.
Intelligence assessments: fear of a preemptive strike
On May 22, Israeli intelligence warned that Iran might be planning a surprise attack using missiles and drones against Gulf states and Israel. The threat was reportedly discussed at a meeting attended by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz. According to sources, Tehran may try to strike before the US and Israel officially declare diplomacy dead.
In response, the IDF and the Operations Directorate under Major General Hiday Zilberman conducted a series of consultations with US counterparts to enhance operational readiness, including intelligence sharing on anomalous Iranian activity.
Lebanese front
Despite a formal 45‑day extension of the ceasefire, hostilities on the Lebanese front have not ceased. On May 22, Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed ten people, including six paramedics and a Syrian girl.
The first strike hit the village of Hanuiya, where four paramedics from Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Association were killed and two wounded. The second strike in the village of Deir Qanoun al‑Nahr killed six, including two paramedics and a Syrian girl.
Lebanon’s Health Ministry condemned the attacks as a violation of international law. The next day, May 23, Israeli aircraft expanded their strike zone, hitting eastern areas on the border with Syria for the first time, including the outskirts of Brital. Evacuation warnings were issued before strikes on two buildings in the city of Tyre, followed by bombings.
Casualties and Hezbollah’s response
As of May 23, since the start of the escalation on March 2, the death toll in Lebanon has reached 3,111, with 9,432 wounded. In response, Hezbollah announced attacks on Israeli positions. A drone struck a gathering of Israeli soldiers near the Biranit barracks and an armored personnel carrier in the al‑Rahib sector. A rocket barrage hit a command center in the village of al‑Bayyada.
US sanctions against Lebanon and Hezbollah’s position
On May 21, the United States imposed sanctions on nine individuals linked to Hezbollah. The list includes Hezbollah MPs Ibrahim al‑Musawi and Hassan Fadlallah, former minister Mohamed Fanieh, and two senior officers of the Lebanese army and security forces accused of passing intelligence to Hezbollah.
For the first time, Lebanese security personnel were also sanctioned. The move was seen as a signal to Beirut to disarm Hezbollah and comply with ceasefire obligations.
On May 23, Hezbollah MP Hussein Hajj Hassan outlined the conditions for a genuine ceasefire: “First, Israel must stop its attacks on Lebanon. Second, Israeli forces must fully withdraw from Lebanese territory. Third, Lebanese prisoners must be released.”
Comparing the impossibility of direct talks with Israel to a fictional scenario of Churchill shaking Hitler’s hand during the war, he said: “We do not negotiate under fire. This is not negotiation. This is humiliation.”
