MOSCOW (Realist English). A Russian military satellite launched this summer has exhibited abnormal and potentially threatening behaviour, edging close to foreign spacecraft and releasing an unidentified object that continues to shadow its movements, according to space monitoring company Comspoc.
“We have never seen anything like it,” said Paul Graziani, Comspoc’s chief executive, describing how the satellite deviated from a stable orbit to “see-saw” above and below the usual path. The manoeuvre has sparked concerns over the potential weaponisation of orbital platforms.
Similar unexplained activities have been observed from Chinese satellites, raising alarms within Western defence circles. The incidents come as NATO members and other governments dramatically expand spending on defence and space technology. The S&P Kensho Final Frontiers Index, which tracks deep-space innovators, has surged 35% since April.
Governments are increasingly turning to private contractors for faster, cheaper access to space capabilities. NATO, the Pentagon and the US Space Force have pledged to integrate commercial providers, while Germany’s €650bn defence plan explicitly calls for new agile suppliers. The White House has invited non-traditional contractors into its $175bn Golden Dome missile shield.
The commercial sector is already shifting: earth observation companies once focused on climate change now provide intelligence services. In July, Planet Labs signed a €240mn deal with the German government for high-resolution satellite imagery, with defence now accounting for half its revenue. Finland’s Iceye, known for supplying radar data to Ukraine, reports growing interest from other states.
At the same time, established defence giants such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman maintain strong ties to procurement agencies, creating hurdles for new entrants. “The commercial guys are seen as invading organisms,” Graziani said, noting procurement bodies remain highly risk-averse.
Private equity has also entered the sector. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine highlighted the importance of rapid imagery, Advent International acquired Maxar, one of the world’s largest satellite operators.
Despite the momentum, analysts warn that terrestrial budget constraints may limit growth. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates NATO countries could add $2.7tn annually to security spending by 2035 if they meet targets, but space hardware may still account for only about 1% of total defence outlays.
European military space budgets may grow 10–15% annually, but this “will not be transformational,” said Pierre Lionnet, research director at ASD Eurospace. Governments remain cautious about which functions can be outsourced commercially.
Still, industry leaders argue that modern conflict will increasingly depend on digital and orbital assets. “The past is not a guide to where this money will be required,” said Mark Boggett, CEO of Seraphim Space. “Conflict will be less about tanks and helicopters and more about digital capability.”
