Realist: news and analytics

Русский/English/العربية

  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts
No Result
View All Result
Realist: news and analytics
  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts
No Result
View All Result
Realist: news and analytics

The US is forming a new balance of political forces in Afghanistan

U.S. Special Representative Tom West met in Turkey with leaders of the united Afghan opposition. Russia, and China, will now have to respond to the new American project in Afghanistan. That is, to catch up with Washington, and catching up, as you know, is always late, says Andrei Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics.

Andrey Serenko Andrey Serenko
June 25, 2022, 06:32
Opinion
The US is forming a new balance of political forces in Afghanistan

ANKARA (Realist English). The US Special Representative for Afghanistan, Tom West, met in Turkey with the leaders of the united Afghan opposition — members of the “Supreme Council of Resistance for the Salvation of Afghanistan” (SCR). There is no reliable information about the results of the meetings yet, but the fact of this public contact itself is sensational.

Of course, the Americans have communicated with veterans of Afghan politics in exile previously. But those were secret, unofficial meetings. Now Tom West’s conversations mark the beginning of a new American game in Afghanistan.

Obviously, this will be a full—fledged and almost monopoly two-handed game – with the government of the Taliban* (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) and the united anti-Taliban opposition represented by the SCR. The Americans thereby secured the initiative in the Afghan “great game” again, forcing everyone else, including Russia and China, to trail the tail of Washington’s intrigues. And not unsuccessful intrigues.

The United States is beginning to form a new balance of political forces in the Afghan political process, closing on Washington priority contacts with all its main participants. The ideal role of an “honest broker” in the Afghan game has again been snatched by Washington.

Russia, and China, will now have to respond to the new American project in Afghanistan. That is, to catch up with Washington, and the one who is catching up, as is known, is always late.

Moscow’s very short-sighted bet on cooperation with the Taliban junta predictably turned out to be a beaten. Despite all the gutta-perchance of Mr. Zamir Kabulov and his diplomatic group, it did not work out to make the Taliban at least relatively reliable allies of the Kremlin. Moreover, the Taliban are no allies for Russia at all.

At the same time, the “Nesselrodes” from the Smolenskaya Square stupidly missed unique opportunities for cooperation with serious anti-Taliban opposition groups, defiantly ignoring Ahmad Masood’s “National Resistance Front of Afghanistan” (FNSA) (allegedly, “this is a virtual phenomenon”), the shuttle diplomacy of Shakir Kargar and Hanif Atmar, the potential of the now former Afghan ambassador to Moscow Syed Tayyib Javad, etc.

As a result, today, Russia does not have any serious and promising mechanisms for her own successful game in Afghanistan. It is impossible to consider as such a Kremlin resource Hamid Karzai (who is under house arrest in Kabul) and who became a washed-up has-been after Ashraf Ghani. Yes, he is a great friend and business partner of Zamir Kabulov, but this is where his real pro-Russian virtues end. In any case, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s bet on Karzai turned out to be as unsuccessful as on the Taliban.

On the contrary, Washington has got its hands on almost all the main political tools that allow it to regain its status as the main operator of the Afghan game. The legitimization of the SCR (through meetings of its leaders with the West in Turkey) immediately raises the political stakes of this opposition group. Which, by the way, includes Ahmad Masood, who was not present at the meeting with the American special representative. Undoubtedly, the Taliban will shudder, to whom an open signal about the end of their “honeymoon” in Kabul has been sent. And now the Taliban leaders will even more actively seek the favor of Washington, which is preparing the “furious mullahs” for a new deal — of course, “in the interests of the Afghan people and, quite a bit, the United States”.

And Russian diplomats will be watching as spectators the new stage of the big game in Afghanistan. Because the main roles in this “performance” were sorted out by more effective actors.

* an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation.

Andrei Serenko is the Head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics

RussiaRussia’s Foreign PolicyUS Foreign PolicyUnited StatesAsiaTurkeyTurkey’s Foreign PolicyAfghanistan
Previous Post

Turkey is even further away from the European Union than it was in 1999 — European Commission President

Next Post

Olaf Scholz is not Angela Merkel: Dmitry Medvedev announced the degradation of Western politicians

Related Posts

Victor Mnatsakanyan
Opinion

Yerevan should be a people city

4 September, 2023
Mikhail Mishustin and Xi Jinping. Photo: Maxim Stulov / Vedomosti
Opinion

Results of Mishustin’s visit to China: the struggle for world leadership takes on more concrete features

30 May, 2023
Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people
Opinion

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

19 May, 2023
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Recep Erdoğan. Image: dha.com.tr
Opinion

Erdogan’s rule is under real threat

9 May, 2023
Jacques Attali
Opinion

Jacques Attali: The world is facing a large-scale financial crisis

22 April, 2023
Image: scmp.com
Opinion

Union of Russia and China: who will win?

5 April, 2023
Most Popular
Most Popular
Donald Trump and Ron Desantis. Image: mediaproxy.salon.com

DeSantis is betting on the polarization of American society

31 May, 2023

WASHINGTON (Realist English). Florida Governor Ron Desantis will find it extremely difficult to defend his position, competing with ex-President, The...

Aram Torosyan on cinema, culture and beauty of Armenia

Aram Torosyan on cinema, culture and beauty of Armenia

24 May, 2023

YEREVAN (Realist English). Aram Torosyan, Director of Academy Films, answered these and other questions of the Realist News Agency. What...

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

19 May, 2023

YEREVAN (Realist English). 32 years have passed since the Phoenix Greek Society of Armenia, renamed to the Patrida organization, appealed...

Barack Obama. Image: cnn.com

When a problem arises in the world, we always look at how Washington responds — Barack Obama

4 May, 2023

ZURICH (Realist English). Former US President Barack Obama spoke in Zurich on the evening of April 29. The former head...

Opinion

Victor Mnatsakanyan

Yerevan should be a people city

4 September, 2023

YEREVAN (Realist English). Time and events make us look at many things in a new way, have a new attitude...

Mikhail Mishustin and Xi Jinping. Photo: Maxim Stulov / Vedomosti

Results of Mishustin’s visit to China: the struggle for world leadership takes on more concrete features

30 May, 2023

BEIJING (English Realist). The visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to China has ended. This is one of the...

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

19 May, 2023

YEREVAN (Realist English). 32 years have passed since the Phoenix Greek Society of Armenia, renamed to the Patrida organization, appealed...

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Recep Erdoğan. Image: dha.com.tr

Erdogan’s rule is under real threat

9 May, 2023

ANKARA (Realist English). There are less than 10 days left before the presidential elections in Turkey. There, for the first...

All rights reserved.

© 2017-2022

  • About Us
  • Mission and Values
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy

Follow Realist English

No Result
View All Result
  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts

Русский/English/العربية