Realist: news and analytics

Русский/English/العربية

  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts
No Result
View All Result
Realist: news and analytics
  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts
No Result
View All Result
Realist: news and analytics

The US is forming a new balance of political forces in Afghanistan

U.S. Special Representative Tom West met in Turkey with leaders of the united Afghan opposition. Russia, and China, will now have to respond to the new American project in Afghanistan. That is, to catch up with Washington, and catching up, as you know, is always late, says Andrei Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics.

Andrey Serenko Andrey Serenko
June 25, 2022, 06:32
Opinion
The US is forming a new balance of political forces in Afghanistan

ANKARA (Realist English). The US Special Representative for Afghanistan, Tom West, met in Turkey with the leaders of the united Afghan opposition — members of the “Supreme Council of Resistance for the Salvation of Afghanistan” (SCR). There is no reliable information about the results of the meetings yet, but the fact of this public contact itself is sensational.

Of course, the Americans have communicated with veterans of Afghan politics in exile previously. But those were secret, unofficial meetings. Now Tom West’s conversations mark the beginning of a new American game in Afghanistan.

Obviously, this will be a full—fledged and almost monopoly two-handed game – with the government of the Taliban* (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) and the united anti-Taliban opposition represented by the SCR. The Americans thereby secured the initiative in the Afghan “great game” again, forcing everyone else, including Russia and China, to trail the tail of Washington’s intrigues. And not unsuccessful intrigues.

The United States is beginning to form a new balance of political forces in the Afghan political process, closing on Washington priority contacts with all its main participants. The ideal role of an “honest broker” in the Afghan game has again been snatched by Washington.

Russia, and China, will now have to respond to the new American project in Afghanistan. That is, to catch up with Washington, and the one who is catching up, as is known, is always late.

Moscow’s very short-sighted bet on cooperation with the Taliban junta predictably turned out to be a beaten. Despite all the gutta-perchance of Mr. Zamir Kabulov and his diplomatic group, it did not work out to make the Taliban at least relatively reliable allies of the Kremlin. Moreover, the Taliban are no allies for Russia at all.

At the same time, the “Nesselrodes” from the Smolenskaya Square stupidly missed unique opportunities for cooperation with serious anti-Taliban opposition groups, defiantly ignoring Ahmad Masood’s “National Resistance Front of Afghanistan” (FNSA) (allegedly, “this is a virtual phenomenon”), the shuttle diplomacy of Shakir Kargar and Hanif Atmar, the potential of the now former Afghan ambassador to Moscow Syed Tayyib Javad, etc.

As a result, today, Russia does not have any serious and promising mechanisms for her own successful game in Afghanistan. It is impossible to consider as such a Kremlin resource Hamid Karzai (who is under house arrest in Kabul) and who became a washed-up has-been after Ashraf Ghani. Yes, he is a great friend and business partner of Zamir Kabulov, but this is where his real pro-Russian virtues end. In any case, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s bet on Karzai turned out to be as unsuccessful as on the Taliban.

On the contrary, Washington has got its hands on almost all the main political tools that allow it to regain its status as the main operator of the Afghan game. The legitimization of the SCR (through meetings of its leaders with the West in Turkey) immediately raises the political stakes of this opposition group. Which, by the way, includes Ahmad Masood, who was not present at the meeting with the American special representative. Undoubtedly, the Taliban will shudder, to whom an open signal about the end of their “honeymoon” in Kabul has been sent. And now the Taliban leaders will even more actively seek the favor of Washington, which is preparing the “furious mullahs” for a new deal — of course, “in the interests of the Afghan people and, quite a bit, the United States”.

And Russian diplomats will be watching as spectators the new stage of the big game in Afghanistan. Because the main roles in this “performance” were sorted out by more effective actors.

* an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation.

Andrei Serenko is the Head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics

AfghanistanAsiaRussiaRussia’s Foreign PolicyTurkeyTurkey’s Foreign PolicyUnited StatesUS Foreign Policy
Previous Post

Turkey is even further away from the European Union than it was in 1999 — European Commission President

Next Post

Olaf Scholz is not Angela Merkel: Dmitry Medvedev announced the degradation of Western politicians

Related Posts

Roman Starovoit
Opinion

Roman Starovoit and the collapse of a technocratic glossy dream

8 July, 2025
Bezos’s Venetian wedding: a manifesto of new feudalism
Opinion

Bezos’s Venetian wedding: a manifesto of new feudalism

30 June, 2025
Not Mossad’s strength — but Iran’s weakness
Opinion

Not Mossad’s strength — but Iran’s weakness

16 June, 2025
The Church belongs to Christ, not to politicians: The Armenian Apostolic Church becomes a casualty of Yerevan’s political agony
Opinion

The Church belongs to Christ, not to politicians: The Armenian Apostolic Church becomes a casualty of Yerevan’s political agony

12 June, 2025
Russia’s Afghan failure: No allies, no leverage, no strategy
Opinion

Russia’s Afghan failure: No allies, no leverage, no strategy

30 April, 2025
Photo: mos.ru
Opinion

Russia faces critical shortage of qualified teachers nationwide

27 April, 2025
Most Popular
Most Popular
Orban under pressure: Hungary’s ‘illiberal democracy’ faces a centre-right challenger

Iran slams Netanyahu over missile remarks, calls Israel’s war aims a failure

14 July, 2025

TEHRAN (Realist English). Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has sharply rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, declaring that Tel Aviv...

Gen X poised for major inheritance boom amid record baby boomer wealth transfers

Gen X poised for major inheritance boom amid record baby boomer wealth transfers

13 July, 2025

WASHINGTON (Realist English). Members of Generation X — those currently aged 45 to 60 — are expected to benefit from...

Trump’s 30% tariffs ignite EU backlash and threaten trade war escalation

Erdoğan hails ‘new page in history’ as Kurdish militants begin disarmament

13 July, 2025

ANKARA (Realist English). Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared the beginning of a new era as militants from the outlawed...

FBI launches criminal investigation into former CIA and FBI chiefs over 2016 Russia probe

FBI launches criminal investigation into former CIA and FBI chiefs over 2016 Russia probe

9 July, 2025

WASHINGTON (Realist English). The Federal Bureau of Investigation has opened criminal investigations into former CIA Director John Brennan and former...

Opinion

Roman Starovoit

Roman Starovoit and the collapse of a technocratic glossy dream

8 July, 2025

MOSCOW (Realist English). I can’t stop thinking about the story of Roman Starovoit. If you think about it, the former...

Bezos’s Venetian wedding: a manifesto of new feudalism

Bezos’s Venetian wedding: a manifesto of new feudalism

30 June, 2025

VENICE (Realist English). When Jeff Bezos rents half of Venice for a $50 million wedding, it is more than the...

Not Mossad’s strength — but Iran’s weakness

Not Mossad’s strength — but Iran’s weakness

16 June, 2025

TBILISI (Realist English). The recent targeted assassinations of senior IRGC commanders and high-ranking Iranian officers are not simply the triumph...

The Church belongs to Christ, not to politicians: The Armenian Apostolic Church becomes a casualty of Yerevan’s political agony

The Church belongs to Christ, not to politicians: The Armenian Apostolic Church becomes a casualty of Yerevan’s political agony

12 June, 2025

YEREVAN (Realist English). First, they handed over part of the Holy Land to the Baku fascists, betraying the Armenians of...

All rights reserved.

© 2017-2025

  • About Us
  • Mission and Values
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy

Follow Realist English

No Result
View All Result
  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts

Русский/English/العربية