Realist: news and analytics

Русский/English/العربية

  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts
No Result
View All Result
Realist: news and analytics
  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts
No Result
View All Result
Realist: news and analytics

Turkey and Qatar reshape Syria’s future as Trump pivots away from US intervention

Turkey and Qatar reshape Syria's future as Trump pivots away from US interventionWith Assad gone, Ankara and Doha emerge as Washington’s key regional partners, sidelining UAE influence and accelerating economic deals.

   
June 12, 2025, 08:35
World
Silver and platinum rally as investors seek alternatives to gold and dollar hedges

DAMASCUS (Realist English). Turkey and Qatar have become pivotal players in President Donald Trump’s redefined Middle East, taking the lead in Syria’s post-Assad reconstruction while the US distances itself from traditional interventionism and “nation-building”.

Their roles are especially visible in Syria, where Qatari gas and investment and Turkish military coordination are driving reconstruction in formerly contested regions. The shift reflects Trump’s broader strategy: reduce direct US military presence and instead empower regional allies with aligned interests.

“Trump is focused on China, Iran, and Ukraine. He doesn’t want boots on the ground,” a senior Arab official told Middle East Eye. “In Syria, he has two partners — Turkey and Qatar — willing to manage the complexity.”

Strategic shifts in Syria

Qatar began gas deliveries to Syria via Jordan in March and now co-finances civil service salaries alongside Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, Ankara and Damascus have entered quiet talks over a potential defense pact, as Israeli airstrikes persist across Syrian territory.

The turning point came in May, when the US, Turkey, and Qatar signed a $7bn energy agreement to build four gas-fired and one solar power plant in Syria. Qatari conglomerate UCC, owned by the al-Khayyat family, is leading the project. At the signing ceremony in Damascus, new US envoy Thomas Barrack praised the “alignment” between the three countries and invoked Trump’s vision of correcting the “Sykes-Picot mistake” through regional empowerment.

This cooperation marks the first major post-Arab Spring reconstruction initiative in the region, launched without Assad and under a new Syrian government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former commander of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.

From insurgents to investors

Turkey and Qatar were early backers of the Syrian opposition. Unlike most Gulf states, which abandoned their support, Qatar hosted and funded opposition groups throughout the conflict. Turkey, with its long border and military capacity, remained the last stronghold of anti-Assad rebel support. Their alignment solidified after the Arab Spring and deepened during the 2017 Gulf crisis, when Saudi Arabia and the UAE imposed a blockade on Doha.

Now, this alliance is paying strategic dividends. While Qatar provides capital and reconstruction resources, Turkey delivers security cooperation and leverage over northern Syria. The US under Trump is leaning into this partnership — even as it prepares to reduce its own military footprint. Barrack told Turkish media in June that seven of eight US bases in Syria would be closed by year’s end.

Security realism: the PKK, Iran, and deconfliction

A major driver of US deference to Turkey is Ankara’s demand to neutralise Kurdish-led SDF forces, whom it views as an offshoot of the PKK — a designated terrorist group in both the US and EU. Trump’s administration appears to acknowledge Turkey’s security priorities, reversing years of friction under Biden.

“You can’t stabilise Syria without addressing the PKK,” said Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat. “The US needs Turkey — or we risk another war.”

With Assad gone and Iran’s presence weakened, the strategic logic for a prolonged US presence has evaporated. Trump has stated that “Turkey has taken over Syria”, alluding to Sharaa’s alignment with Ankara.

UAE and the limits of influence

In contrast, the UAE faces growing challenges across its regional hotspots. Despite earlier efforts to rehabilitate Assad, including secret negotiations to lift US sanctions in exchange for curbing Iranian influence, the UAE has now been sidelined in Syria’s political transition.

While Dubai Ports World signed a pledge to invest $800 million in Tartus port, and France’s CMA CGM secured a deal to manage Latakia, these moves appear more transactional than strategic. Analysts suggest Russia approved the UAE’s port presence as a non-threatening balance to NATO or Turkish influence.

“The UAE is trying to stay relevant by investing,” said a Syria analyst based in Abu Dhabi. “But Sharaa won’t trust them with security.”

The broader UAE strategy, marked by its support for General Haftar in Libya and RSF forces in Sudan, has left it stretched. In Egypt, once its core ally, Emirati patience is thinning amid Cairo’s economic stagnation. Tensions over Palestinian displacement plans and regional diplomacy have further eroded its standing.

Post-Assad Syria: stability without elections

The new Syrian government under Sharaa appears focused on reconstruction and stability, not elections or political Islam. Trump lifted all US sanctions on Syria following lobbying by Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Analysts suggest this reflects a consensus among Gulf powers to pursue economic integration — and to limit Iranian resurgence.

“The Saudis, Turks, Qataris, and even the Emiratis agree on this: they want Iran out and Syria stable,” said Robert Ford, the last US ambassador to Syria. “That means backing Sharaa — no matter who gets the credit.”

Despite past ideological divisions, there’s now pragmatic alignment across the region. The Gulf Cooperation Council, once fractured, is coalescing around economic diplomacy. Syria, as the first test case, may set the tone for a new Middle Eastern order.

“This isn’t about elections or democracy,” said the UAE-based analyst. “Sharaa has shown he’s not interested in exporting ideology. That makes him acceptable to everyone — even if no one fully trusts him.”

Middle EastQatarSyriaTurkey
Previous Post

Japan protests after Chinese fighter jet narrowly misses MSDF patrol plane

Next Post

Silver and platinum rally as investors seek alternatives to gold and dollar hedges

Related Posts

Japan calls China’s expanding military operations its ‘greatest strategic challenge’
World

Japan calls China’s expanding military operations its ‘greatest strategic challenge’

15 July, 2025
Taiwan’s military trains in metro stations and city streets as Han Kuang drills enter urban phase
World

Cameroon’s 92-year-old president Paul Biya announces bid for eighth term

15 July, 2025
Orban under pressure: Hungary’s ‘illiberal democracy’ faces a centre-right challenger
World

Orban under pressure: Hungary’s ‘illiberal democracy’ faces a centre-right challenger

14 July, 2025
Orban under pressure: Hungary’s ‘illiberal democracy’ faces a centre-right challenger
World

Iran slams Netanyahu over missile remarks, calls Israel’s war aims a failure

14 July, 2025
Trump’s 30% tariffs ignite EU backlash and threaten trade war escalation
World

China deepens strategic ties with Egypt amid Middle East tensions and global realignments

13 July, 2025
Trump’s 30% tariffs ignite EU backlash and threaten trade war escalation
World

Erdoğan hails ‘new page in history’ as Kurdish militants begin disarmament

13 July, 2025
Most Popular
Most Popular
Orban under pressure: Hungary’s ‘illiberal democracy’ faces a centre-right challenger

Iran slams Netanyahu over missile remarks, calls Israel’s war aims a failure

14 July, 2025

TEHRAN (Realist English). Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has sharply rebuked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, declaring that Tel Aviv...

Gen X poised for major inheritance boom amid record baby boomer wealth transfers

Gen X poised for major inheritance boom amid record baby boomer wealth transfers

13 July, 2025

WASHINGTON (Realist English). Members of Generation X — those currently aged 45 to 60 — are expected to benefit from...

Trump’s 30% tariffs ignite EU backlash and threaten trade war escalation

Erdoğan hails ‘new page in history’ as Kurdish militants begin disarmament

13 July, 2025

ANKARA (Realist English). Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared the beginning of a new era as militants from the outlawed...

FBI launches criminal investigation into former CIA and FBI chiefs over 2016 Russia probe

FBI launches criminal investigation into former CIA and FBI chiefs over 2016 Russia probe

9 July, 2025

WASHINGTON (Realist English). The Federal Bureau of Investigation has opened criminal investigations into former CIA Director John Brennan and former...

Opinion

Roman Starovoit

Roman Starovoit and the collapse of a technocratic glossy dream

8 July, 2025

MOSCOW (Realist English). I can’t stop thinking about the story of Roman Starovoit. If you think about it, the former...

Bezos’s Venetian wedding: a manifesto of new feudalism

Bezos’s Venetian wedding: a manifesto of new feudalism

30 June, 2025

VENICE (Realist English). When Jeff Bezos rents half of Venice for a $50 million wedding, it is more than the...

Not Mossad’s strength — but Iran’s weakness

Not Mossad’s strength — but Iran’s weakness

16 June, 2025

TBILISI (Realist English). The recent targeted assassinations of senior IRGC commanders and high-ranking Iranian officers are not simply the triumph...

The Church belongs to Christ, not to politicians: The Armenian Apostolic Church becomes a casualty of Yerevan’s political agony

The Church belongs to Christ, not to politicians: The Armenian Apostolic Church becomes a casualty of Yerevan’s political agony

12 June, 2025

YEREVAN (Realist English). First, they handed over part of the Holy Land to the Baku fascists, betraying the Armenians of...

All rights reserved.

© 2017-2025

  • About Us
  • Mission and Values
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy

Follow Realist English

No Result
View All Result
  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts

Русский/English/العربية