BRUSSELS (Realist). The European Union has agreed on a ceiling on Russian oil prices. Britain, Australia and the G7 countries have reached an agreement on this issue. This was stated by the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen at the G20 summit in Indonesia. Before her, OFSI (the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation) announced this in a statement.
With absolute probability, it can be argued that this will lead to the displacement of Russian oil from Europe by American shale oil after the total prices of black gold reach the level that makes the production of shale oil profitable. The US is the beneficiary.
It is for this, that the maneuver was conceived. It is not difficult to guess that the world expects a sharp jump in the cost of a barrel. On the eve of the oil collusion of the European partners, there was a feverish purchase of Russian oil for the future by the countries of Southeast Asia. Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia in terms of oil supplies to India, losing the lead to Iraq.
Moscow has stated several times that it will not supply oil at a loss. But this does not mean that Russia will not do this at a discount or, even worse, at a price close to the cost of production. Even Russian supplies to Asia are carried out with significant discounts.
The question of political will remains open. In this case, it plays out almost according to Churchill: whoever chooses a discount instead of war will get both – shame and war.
Smart people at the beginning of the special military operation proposed a shock scenario of the collapse of the Anglo-Saxon economy by a sharp unilateral restriction of any Russian supplies of hydrocarbons to the West. Even 3-4 months ago, this would have had really devastating consequences for them. Now, the EU and the US have been able to diversify and adapt to the new conditions and even go into growth due to the transformation of Europe into the industrial base of the Ukroreich.
The Russian market-oriented elite has a catastrophically short horizon of thinking, like the fruit fly. I see sweet things – I fly to sweet things. So, for the sake of a couple of months of super profits, a unique opportunity to influence the global market situation from a position of strength has been missed. It’ may be a joke, but the situation can’t be influenced from the position of the fly! By the way, it is quite possible that the “Northern Streams” would have remained unscathed now. In a form that is not supplied from the Russian side, even without gas, these empty pipes would be much more useful for the country that does not trade sovereignty…