WASHINGTON (Realist English). President Donald Trump’s economic advisers have warned that a prolonged government shutdown could inflict serious damage on the US economy, costing $15 billion in lost GDP per week and pushing tens of thousands of people into unemployment.
According to a four-page memo from the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) obtained by Politico, a month-long shutdown could lead to an additional 43,000 job losses on top of the disruption for 1.9 million federal civilian employees, 80 percent of whom live in the Washington area. The analysis, which cites Goldman Sachs, Fiserv and Federal Reserve research, estimates consumer spending would fall by $30 billion over four weeks — half from direct income losses to federal workers, the rest from spillover effects across the economy.
“CEA analysis indicates that the shutdown may have wide-ranging economic effects that reduce American prospects through lower growth, higher unemployment, as well as disruptions to social security, air travel, and nutritional support to women with infant children,” the memo states.
Political blame game
White House aides say the document will be distributed to congressional Republicans to shape messaging during the standoff. Congress remains divided over funding for Affordable Care Act subsidies, which the administration has falsely claimed benefit undocumented immigrants.
“The very real economic consequences of a prolonged government shutdown are entirely on Senate Democrats who are holding the federal government, economy, and country hostage to give illegal immigrants free health care,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said.
The Trump administration is working to coordinate Republican messaging across state and federal levels, aiming to pin responsibility for the shutdown on Democrats. However, polls show voters currently place more blame on Republicans, though many hold both parties accountable.
Economic backdrop
The warning comes amid heightened scrutiny of Trump’s economic record, with private payroll data from ADP showing 32,000 job losses in September, partly attributed to the president’s tariff policies.
The CEA memo outlines specific risks if the shutdown persists. The Women, Infants and Children (WIC) nutrition program will run out of funding in October. Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries could face longer wait times for services. Head Start programs up for review will not receive new funding.
Air travel could also be hit. While TSA officers and air traffic controllers are expected to work without pay, the memo notes absenteeism among them tripled during previous shutdowns, rising from 3 percent to 10 percent, causing widespread flight delays.
The White House memo concludes: “These effects will intensify the longer the shutdown lasts.”
