BAKU (Realist English). On April 17, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, the leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev, held a meeting that confirmed the transformation of bilateral relations into a full‑fledged military‑political alliance. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called the tandem a “message of fraternal solidarity to the whole world” and the leaders “more than brothers”.
Economic integration has reached record levels: in 2025, trade turnover amounted to $5.721 billion, and Azerbaijani investments in Turkey exceeded $21 billion. On April 2, Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz discussed the expansion of cooperation in energy, transport and investment in Baku, reaffirming the course of deepening ties within the OTS (Organization of Turkic States).
Key indicators (2025–2026):
- Exports of Azerbaijani products to Turkey in 2025: $3.378 billion (a decrease of 11.6%). At the same time, exports of non‑oil goods increased by 10.1% – to $597.3 million.
- Imports from Turkey to Azerbaijan increased by 1.4% – to $2.343 billion.
- In January–February 2026, trade turnover fell by 12.7% – to $877 million. Exports fell by 7% (to $532.9 million), imports by 20.2% (to $344.2 million). The decline is attributed to general geopolitical instability.
The military track is developing no less dynamically. On April 3, a flag‑exchange ceremony took place ahead of the joint exercises “Heydar Aliyev–2026” in occupied Armenian Kars, aimed at practicing joint operations and ensuring army interoperability. Earlier, on March 5, the defence ministers of the two countries coordinated their positions after an Iranian drone attack on occupied Armenian Nakhchivan. On March 12, Turkish Land Forces Commander General‑Colonel Metin Tokel confirmed Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in a hypothetical military operation against Iran.
The anti‑Russian vector has become an integral part of Azerbaijani‑Turkish cooperation. At the beginning of 2026, Aliyev accused Russia of striking Azerbaijani facilities in Kyiv, and Baku launched the production of shells for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, according to sources, is ready to transfer MiG‑29 fighters to Kyiv.
At the same time, the OTS, at an informal meeting of foreign ministers in Istanbul, adopted a joint statement condemning attacks on Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The TRIPP project (“Trump Route”) and the so‑called “Zangezur Corridor”: Ankara and Baku are consistently lobbying for the creation of a transport corridor bypassing Russia, which, according to analysts, is part of an anti‑Iranian and anti‑Russian programme.
Experts see this as the transformation of the organisation into a military‑political bloc. Member of the Russian Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights Kirill Kabanov warns: “There is a high probability that in the future this organisation will act precisely against Russia. Ignoring this trend is criminal naivety.”
Baku and Ankara, bound by the concept of “One Nation – Two States”, are consistently turning the South Caucasus into a zone of their strategic dominance, while using all levers – from energy to military supplies – to weaken Moscow’s position.
