CASABLANCA (Realist English). China maintains its dominant position in the struggle for influence in Africa, significantly outperforming the United States and Russia.
These are the findings of a large‑scale Afrobarometer survey conducted in 2024–2025, covering 38 countries on the continent.
According to the poll, 62% of Africans have a favourable view of China’s economic and political influence, 52% of the United States, and only 36% of Russia.
Support figures by country
China (overall support 62%):
- Mali: 79%
- Morocco: 60%
- South Africa (Pew Research, 2025): 57%
- Zambia: 51%
United States (overall support 52%):
- Morocco: 59%
- South Africa (Pew, 2025): 50%
- Zambia: 45%
- Mali: 40%
Russia (overall support 36%):
- Mali: 88% (highest figure on the continent)
- South Africa: about 40%
- Morocco (September 2024): 25%
- Zambia: 19%
Why China leads
Experts attribute China’s high rating to concrete infrastructure projects. China has invested more than $1.5 trillion in Africa, building ports, railways and power plants. A policy of long‑term, flexible loans not encumbered by political conditions inspires trust among local elites and populations.
“China is seen as a reliable partner that does not lecture Africans about democracy but simply builds roads and bridges,” notes Nikolay Shcherbakov, senior researcher at the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Decline in US rating
Washington’s position has suffered from the policies of Donald Trump, which in Africa are dubbed “America first.” Cuts in development funding, unwillingness to deepen trade ties and a public confrontation with South Africa’s president (over the land law) have undermined trust. Nevertheless, the US retains strong positions in Morocco (59%) and South Africa (50%).
Russia: contrasts between the Sahel and the south of the continent
Russia shows sharp regional contrasts. Moscow received its strongest support in Mali — 88% — after Wagner Group mercenaries and Russian instructors helped local authorities fight jihadists. Ratings are also high in Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic.
However, in southern Africa — Zambia (19%) and Morocco (25%) — attitudes toward Russia are wary. Experts link this to the spread of a “neocolonialism” narrative and the information war surrounding the special military operation in Ukraine.
Neutrality as the main trend
The survey also found that 71% of Africans believe their countries should remain neutral in the conflict between Russia and the West. African leaders prefer to manoeuvre, extracting benefits from great‑power rivalry.
“Africa does not want to be a pawn in someone else’s game. It wants to receive technology and investment from everyone — from China, the US and Russia — but without military bases and political conditions,” explains Dmitry Bondarenko, political scientist and director of the Centre for African Studies.
Conclusions
China remains Africa’s undisputed economic champion. The United States retains cultural and diplomatic influence but is losing points because of inconsistency. Russia remains a “niche player” — popular in countries where it offers military assistance, and unpopular where it is perceived as a threat to sovereignty. The main lesson for Moscow: to catch up with China, it needs not only mercenaries and grain, but also large‑scale economic projects.
