NEW YORK (Realist English). Oil prices have hit multi‑year highs, surpassing $126 per barrel for Brent, amid reports that US President Donald Trump plans to indefinitely extend the blockade of Iranian ports and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking on 29 April in the Oval Office, Trump confirmed his intention to make the blockade long‑term. He instructed his team to prepare for “several months” of naval blockade of Iranian ports. The president also held a special meeting with oil companies to discuss ways to mitigate the consequences of a prolonged closure of this key transport artery.
“The prospects for any imminent resolution of the Iranian conflict or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain negligible,” said IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore.
The Strait of Hormuz has been functionally closed since the end of February. Daily transits have dropped to nearly zero, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) has called the situation the “largest supply disruption in history.” Losses of Middle Eastern production have reached 14.5 million barrels per day.
Expert forecasts
| Institution / Expert | Brent forecast | Scenario |
| Citi (base) | $120 (next 3 months) | 50% probability |
| Citi (bullish) | $150 (by end of June) | 30% probability |
| Citi (super‑bullish) | $160–180 | If infrastructure is destroyed |
| ING | “Inevitable rise” | Market tightening daily |
| Goldman Sachs | $90 (Q4 2026) | Previously $80 |
| Morgan Stanley (base) | $100–110 | If restrictions persist |
| CFRA | $99 (average for 2026) | Peak up to 140 , t h e n c r a s h t o 140,thencrashto60 in 2027 |
| Iran (parliament) | 140 $ | If blockade continues |
In response to Trump’s threats, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf mocked the US president’s claims that Iranian oil wells could “explode.” He called it “garbage advice” and warned that US policy is pushing global prices towards $140 per barrel. In a subsequent post, he wrote: “Next stop – 140.”
“That was the garbage advice the US administration is getting from people like Bessent, who are also promoting the blockade theory and have sent oil above $120,” Qalibaf wrote on X.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report published on 29 April, crude oil reserves for the week ending 24 April fell sharply by 6.23 million barrels. Gasoline stocks plunged by 6.08 million barrels, and distillate stocks by 4.49 million barrels.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a similar picture:
- Commercial crude stocks: down 1.79 million barrels (forecast: +0.3 million)
- Gasoline stocks: down 8.47 million barrels
- Stocks at the Cushing terminal: down 820,000 barrels
“Physical scarcity is driving prices, not headlines about the war. Traders are increasingly watching what’s happening on the water (i.e., nothing), rather than the diplomatic stuff,” Saxo Bank strategist Neil Wilson had noted earlier.
The oil market has entered a prolonged deficit, caused not by natural factors but by a deliberate political blockade. Traders are shifting their focus from diplomacy to physical flows (which are virtually non‑existent), and analysts are seriously discussing the $150+ per barrel scenario for the first time in a long while.
