DUBAI (Realist English). The United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+ effective from 1 May 2026. The decision, a serious blow to the cartel and its leader Saudi Arabia, coincided with a sharp rise in global oil prices against the backdrop of the war in Iran and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
‘Long-term strategy’: why the UAE is leaving OPEC
As reported by state news agency WAM, the decision “aligns with the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and the development of its energy sector, including accelerating investment in domestic energy production.” UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei wrote on X: “The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC reflects a policy-driven evolution aligned with long-term market fundamentals. We remain committed to energy security.”
The UAE is among the world’s ten largest oil producers, accounting for 3–4% of global output. OPEC, founded in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Kuwait, today controls 36% of world oil production and nearly 80% of proven reserves. The UAE joined the cartel seven years later. In recent years, the Emirates repeatedly pushed for higher production quotas as it sought to expand capacity.
The UAE’s decision coincided with a sharp price spike. By 15:00 Moscow time on 28 April, Brent futures had risen 2.7% to $111.09 per barrel – the first time since early April. Saxo Bank strategist Neil Wilson noted: “Physical scarcity is driving prices rather than headlines about the war. Traders are increasingly watching what’s happening on the water (i.e. nothing) rather than the diplomatic stuff.”
US-Iran talks: deadlock
According to CNN sources, US President Donald Trump on 27 April signalled that he was unlikely to accept Iran’s latest proposal, conveyed through Pakistani mediators. Tehran had proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz while leaving negotiations on its nuclear programme for later. The previous round of talks in Islamabad on 25–27 April was scuttled: Trump cancelled his envoys’ visit, accusing Iran’s leadership of “infighting and confusion.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, after visits to Pakistan and Oman, flew to Russia where he met with Vladimir Putin.
First LNG tanker transits Hormuz
Analytics firm Kpler reported that a fully laden LNG tanker, Mubaraz, transited the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the start of the war (late February), likely heading to Asia. Meanwhile, according to MarineTraffic, only six vessels attempted passage through the strait on 28 April – a tiny fraction of the previous 140 per day.
Iran: two months without internet, economy collapsing
Monitoring group NetBlocks reported that Iran’s internet shutdown has reached its 60th day. Authorities imposed a total blackout at the end of February. Residents, especially women working from home, are cut off from the global market. Somayeh, a German teacher from Isfahan, told CNN: “Nothing works properly anymore. The drop in income is bad, but what’s worse is the constant uncertainty.”
Bahrain: life sentences for collaboration with Iran
Bahrain’s High Criminal Court on 28 April sentenced five people to life imprisonment on charges of carrying out “terrorist and hostile acts” on behalf of Iran. Two Afghans, according to the prosecution, were recruited to spy on key facilities.
Three Bahraini citizens were accused of similar intelligence activities. One other defendant was acquitted. On Monday, Bahraini authorities stripped dozens of people of their citizenship for expressing sympathy for Iran.
