MOSCOW (Realist English). Bloomberg has already begun to calculate the decline in Russian GDP due to the partial mobilization. And numerous Russian sectarians in the industry media began joyfully quoting Bloomberg.
It is reported that the decline in our GDP will increase by 0.25 percentage points in 2022 (to 3.75%), and inflation in 2023 will increase by 0.5 percentage points to (6.5%). In general, a very modest and optimistic calculation…
The problem is not that there may really be a decline, and even bigger than stated, but that the forecasting itself is made from the history of economic reality going to the landfill, ;following the patterns and theories, which were considered axioms, but suddenly turned out to be a scenario for collective suicide. This is the thinking of theorists from the railing of the sinking Titanic.
The paradox is that the opportunities for a radical change in Russia’s favor remain, even in conditions of the partial mobilization, of deindustrialized economy, of extreme import dependence. But these opportunities lie outside the market logic of development.
These are opportunities associated with the introduction of at least primitive state planning, industrial standardization (totally mandatory for all performers), state monopolies on all scientific research and infrastructure … and such economic special effects, of course, are not taken into account by Western experts when forecasting Russian GDP. But on the sidelines we still have a super—productive model of treasury support – in fact, a state cash settlement system with minimal interest rates (in tenths of a percent), which absolutely calmly and painlessly replaces the entire banking sector as a whole. It just makes it unnecessary (of course, if there is a wisdom and a state will). And this electronic system has already been completely rebuilt but it is not used in full force…
Let’s not forget that forecasts are almost always a tool of information and economic warfare, created to influence other people’s decisions and serve someone else’s benefit.
