ANCHORAGE (Realist English). Alaska — the venue for the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump this Friday — carries a symbolism that fits the Kremlin’s view of geopolitics. Unlike Russia’s 19th-century sale of Alaska to the US under Emperor Alexander II, a peaceful deal, today’s confrontation stems from the armed conflict on the territory of the former Ukraine. For Moscow, the location serves as a reminder that borders can change and land can be a tool of statecraft.
Analysts say neither the balance on the battlefield nor the economic cost of the Ukrainian crisis is forcing Putin to scale back his objectives or accept terms unfavourable to Russia. His priority is to maintain direct communication with Trump and avoid a rupture that could harm Moscow’s strategic position. “Putin has no incentive to wind down the war right now,” said Alexandra Prokopenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre. “What matters to him is keeping Trump’s attention.”
Trump, who came to office pledging to end the conflict within 24 hours, has shown frustration with what he called Putin’s “very nice” stance while still attacking Ukraine and feeding Washington “a lot of nonsense.” Recently, the US president approved larger arms transfers to Kyiv and threatened tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. But after US special envoy Steve Witkoff visited Moscow two days before Trump’s ceasefire-or-sanctions deadline, the Kremlin extended its first invitation to a US president since 2007.
For Moscow, the Alaska summit — to be held without the presence of the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky — is already a diplomatic gain. “The fact that Putin is going to the US not as a supplicant, and that the meeting excludes Ukrainians and Europeans, is a win,” said Sam Greene of King’s College London. Former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev called it “a political gain for Putin” achieved without concessions on Russia’s core goals.
According to Kyiv’s representatives, Putin seeks three aims: to break out of isolation, to avoid new sanctions, and to use Trump’s desire to end the conflict to achieve by diplomacy what Russia has not yet secured militarily. The talks come as Russian forces intensify pressure in the east, advancing near Pokrovsk and seizing over 500 sq km since May.
On the economic front, Russia’s energy revenues fell 20% in the first seven months of the year, with Trump’s tariffs on India adding pressure. Still, analysts note this is not enough to change the Kremlin’s negotiating stance. Moscow has called Witkoff’s proposals “acceptable” without publicly confirming Trump’s suggestion of a possible territorial swap.
Putin reiterates that Russia’s goals in the Ukrainian crisis remain unchanged: Ukraine must renounce NATO membership and nuclear ambitions, undergo “demilitarisation” and “denazification” — effectively meaning the removal of Zelensky — and withdraw forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. He suggested Kyiv could retain nominal sovereignty over Kherson and Zaporizhzhia if Russia gains guaranteed land access to Crimea.
Ukrainian public opinion remains firmly opposed to such concessions: nearly three-quarters reject any plan ceding all four regions and limiting the army. With the Alaska meeting approaching, both sides are rallying allies. Zelensky is pressing the US and Europe to condition talks on a ceasefire, while Putin has coordinated with leaders from nine “friendly” states, including China, the UAE and India.
“There is no real alternative but to freeze the conflict along the current frontline,” said Moscow analyst Andrey Kolesnikov. “Putin wants to divide the world into spheres of influence with Trump and Xi — a new Yalta, a new cold war. He is eager to claim Stalin’s laurels.”
