MOSCOW (Realist English). April 2026 was a month of record oil and gas revenues for Russia.
The war between the US and Israel against Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting surge in global energy prices caused Russia’s main oil tax – the Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) – to double in April compared to March, reaching $9 billion (about 700 billion rubles), according to Reuters calculations.
Some experts estimate total oil and gas revenues for April at 900–950 billion rubles.
Oil and gas revenues: figures and estimates
According to Reuters, based on preliminary production and price data, revenues from the MET on oil in April amounted to approximately 700 billion rubles, compared to 327 billion rubles in March. That is a near two‑fold increase, with MET revenues up about 10% compared to April 2025.
Olga Belenkaya, an economist at Finam, puts total oil and gas revenues for April even higher – in the range of 900–950 billion rubles (compared to 617 billion rubles in March). That would be the highest monthly figure since October 2025. According to Belenkaya’s estimates, each additional dollar in the average annual Urals price brings the Russian budget about 150 billion rubles.
For comparison, in March 2026, oil and gas revenues amounted to 617 billion rubles (up 42.7% from February), of which oil accounted for 326.8 billion rubles and gas for 85.5 billion rubles. The first‑quarter results were bleak: oil and gas revenues fell 45.4% year‑on‑year to 1.443 trillion rubles due to low prices in January and February. However, the April surge dramatically changes the picture.
Urals prices: records and the budget benchmark
The main driver of revenue growth has been the sharp appreciation of Russia’s Urals grade.
- Average price in April: in the first 13 days of April, the Urals price at Russia’s western ports averaged $106.30 per barrel – 42% higher than the March level.
- March price (used for tax calculation): $77 per barrel – the highest since October 2023 and 73% above the February level.
- Budget benchmark for 2026: $59 per barrel. Thus, Urals sold for almost twice that in April.
At the end of April, prices corrected somewhat: according to Argus Media for 13‑19 April, Urals on a FOB Primorsk basis stood at 95.4 per barrel and at Novorossiysk at 95.4 per barrel and at Novorossiysk at 94.4.
In ruble terms the rise is even more striking: the average March Urals price was 6,191 rubles per barrel, while the April figure could reach 8,300 rubles – the highest since March 2022.
Export volumes: the paradox of revenue growth amid falling shipments
Remarkably, April’s windfall came despite a drop in physical export volumes, as Russia faced Ukrainian drone attacks on port and refining infrastructure.
- Average exports between 16 March and 12 April fell to 3.22 million barrels per day – the lowest since August 2025.
- Exports from western ports in April stood at about 2.2 million barrels per day, flat on March.
- Weekly losses: for the period 6‑12 April, seaborne exports fell 16.1% to a low not seen since June 2024.
Still, weekly export revenues rose: in the week of 5‑12 April, Russia earned 2.29 billion, up from 2.07 billion the previous week. The price rise more than compensated for the volume shortfall.
At the end of April the situation began to improve: in the week of 13‑19 April, seaborne exports rose 22% to 355,000 tonnes per day, after the resumption of operations at the ports of Primorsk and Ust‑Luga. Supplies via the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia and Hungary also eased the burden on seaports.
Gas exports: LNG records and stable flows
The gas sector also delivered impressive results amid the Middle East crisis.
- LNG record: in the first quarter of 2026, European imports of Russian liquefied natural gas hit an absolute quarterly record – more than 6.5 billion cubic metres, up 20% from the same period in 2025. March was especially notable: the EU bought 38% more Russian gas than in March 2025.
- Turkish Stream: in January‑April 2026, gas exports to Europe via this pipeline rose 7% to 6.2 billion cubic metres.
- Asian direction: Russia is offering sanctioned LNG at discounts of up to 40% to South Asian countries to take advantage of the global shortage. So far, China remains the only buyer.
Expert opinions: no reason for euphoria
Despite the record revenues, experts urge a sober assessment.
Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund, told BFM.ru: “In April we will see record receipts, but there is certainly no reason for euphoria.” He pointed to risks associated with a possible change in the Middle East situation and attacks on Russian infrastructure.
Olga Belenkaya (Finam) notes that each additional dollar in the annual Urals price brings the budget about 150 billion rubles, but warns that revenues depend not only on price but also on the tax base, which is shrinking due to idle export infrastructure and falling production.
Economists polled by Kommersant and Vedomosti predict that, given the substantial price rise, Russia’s April oil and gas revenues could even exceed 1 trillion rubles.
Risks and constraints
Despite April’s miracle, serious problems persist in Russia’s oil and gas sector:
- Attacks on infrastructure: Ukrainian drones continue to strike seaports and refineries, reducing production and export capacity.
- Sanctions window closing: On 11 April, a US Treasury waiver that allowed transactions with Russian sanctioned oil already loaded onto tankers expired. Restrictions have once again taken effect.
- Price volatility: If Iran succeeds in its negotiations with the US, the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, causing a sharp drop in prices. “If the Gulf countries can freely export hydrocarbons, oil prices will quickly go down,” Reuters warns.
- Budget deficit: In the first quarter, the budget deficit reached 4.58 trillion rubles – already exceeding the annual target (3.79 trillion rubles). April’s windfall will only partially fill that hole.
