TAIPEI (Realist English). Taiwan has raised concerns that extensive US use of long-range cruise missiles in the war involving Iran could deplete critical stockpiles needed to deter a potential Chinese attack, according to officials cited by the Financial Times.
US forces are estimated to have fired hundreds of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs) and Tomahawk cruise missiles during the first weeks of the conflict, weapons that defence analysts say would be central in any Taiwan contingency.
Key facts
A senior Taiwanese defence official said the pace of US munitions use risks weakening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
“My concern is first and foremost that US forces are using up a lot of munitions… so that an assault on Taiwan could be blunted,” the official said. “This erodes deterrence.”
According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), US forces fired approximately 786 JASSMs and 319 Tomahawk missiles in the first six days of the Iran war — equivalent to several years of production for both systems.
JASSMs are the US military’s primary long-range, air-launched cruise missile, designed to strike targets from outside enemy air defence range. Tomahawks serve a similar function for naval forces.
Military significance
Analysts say such stand-off weapons are essential in a potential US-China conflict. They allow US forces to strike Chinese air bases, missile sites, and naval assets without exposing aircraft or ships to advanced air defence systems.
War games conducted by CSIS and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have shown that the US could exhaust its JASSM inventory within weeks in a high-intensity Taiwan scenario.
“All these munitions were acquired for the China fight,” said Eric Heginbotham, an Asia security expert at MIT. “No one really calculated on using large portions of the inventory on an unrelated war.”
Stockpile constraints
The US Air Force had procured 5,569 JASSMs by 2023, with additional orders of 1,140 in 2024 and 450 in 2025, according to budget documents. However, production capacity remains limited, with manufacturer Lockheed Martin delivering only a few hundred units annually and facing a backlog of approximately three years.
Estimates of the current US stockpile range from 3,500 to 6,500 missiles, though exact figures are not publicly disclosed.
Analysts also note that additional munitions used in the Iran conflict — including Joint Standoff Weapons (JSOWs) — could further strain inventories needed for Indo-Pacific operations.
Strategic context
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly stated it would use force if necessary to assert control. The United States maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity but is legally committed to providing Taiwan with defensive support and maintaining the capacity to resist coercion.
US Indo-Pacific Command has previously warned that the region places the greatest demand on advanced munitions due to China’s military capabilities.
Why it matters
The issue highlights the growing tension between simultaneous conflict theatres. High consumption of precision weapons in the Middle East could reduce US readiness in Asia, potentially altering China’s assessment of military risk.
Taiwanese officials warn that perceived weakening of US capabilities could undermine deterrence and increase the likelihood of escalation.
