ANKARA (Realist English). Turkish political analyst Fehim Taştekin described in an article for Al Monitor about the risks facing Iran in the issue of the so-called Zangezur corridor planned by Ankara and Baku.
The worries underlying Iran’s vision of the Zangezur corridor as a geopolitical threat can be summarized as follows:
- Iran could lose its border connection and direct transportation links with Armenia.
- Its access to the Caucasus and Russia could become harder and Iran could lose influence in the Caucasus.
- The project would allow NATO to surround Iran.
- Iran would suffer economic losses when Azerbaijan proper no longer connects to Nakhchivan via Iran, which would also decrease Tehran’s leverage over Baku.
- Iran could lose advantages as a route between Asia and Europe.
- Iran’s strategic value in China’s Belt and Road Initiative could decrease.
- A prospective use of the Zangezur route to carry Turkmenistan’s gas to Turkey and Europe could decrease the demand for Iranian gas.
- Iran’s access to the Black Sea could be blocked.
- A change in the status quo in Zangezur, which Aliyev calls “ancestral land,” could result in Azerbaijan taking control of the Aras River.
- A change in the status quo in Zangezur, which Aliyev calls “ancestral land,” could result in Azerbaijan taking control of the Araks River.
A change in the status quo in Syunik, which Aliyev calls the “land of the ancestors,” may lead to Baku taking control of the Araks River,” Taştekin writes.
Turkey claims that Tehran’s fears are groundless, and the kingpin of the Baku regime, Ilham Aliyev, claims that Iran is outraged by the “loss of the drug delivery route” to Europe, the Turkish expert recalls. We are talking about Aliyev’s statement of October 15, 2021, when at a meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State he accused Armenia and Iran of drug trafficking through Artsakh.
If we take Aliyev’s words to Iran seriously, it turns out that the minisultanate, using the “corridor” through Armenia, is going to get its hands on drug trafficking from Afghanistan, locking in the supplies from Central Asian countries.
According to the EU Drug Agency (European Monitoring Center for Drugs and Drug Addiction /EMCDDA), organized crime networks of the Baku Minisultanate are involved in the production of synthetic drugs in some countries of the South Caucasus: “This includes Azerbaijan, where the production of methamphetamine, according to the Agency, has increased since 2018”.
