PARIS (Realist English). The current situation in the Ukraine is the central topic in the political debate in France. As is known, Paris fully supports the government of the Ukraine. The French government announced plans to supply weapons and various equipment to Kiev, provide financial assistance, and also expressed readiness to accept refugees on its territory. French Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire has already announced economic sanctions against Russia.
It is known that Emmanuel Macron experienced certain difficulties on the eve of the presidential campaign. French voters have accumulated a lot of questions for him: there is the famous protest movement of the “yellow vests”, and the clumsy anti-Trump policy in France, and many other social and economic problems…
The first round of elections in France is scheduled for April 10. By this time, Macron had many ambitious rivals: in addition to Marine Le Pen, whose last duel took place in the second round of the previous elections in 2017. New notable figures were added in the person of Éric Zemmour and Valérie Pécresse (the latter — from the Republicans party), representing the right flank.
Therefore, it seems that the French president will try to make the most of the difficult international political situation in order to increase his chances for a second presidential term. He wants to appear as a peacemaker, so he is vigorously negotiating with the governments of Russia and the Ukraine. At the same time, he tries to negotiate on behalf of the whole of Europe as a single leader of the European Union.
At the same time, Macron has now received a unique opportunity not to participate in political debates on a par with other presidential candidates and not to discuss with them the difficulties of the internal political and socio-economic life of France, citing objective employment due to involvement in the negotiation process around the situation in the Ukraine.
In French society, right-wing candidates have a reputation of pro-Russian politicians. We are, first of all, talking about Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, who have repeatedly expressed loyalty to the Russian leadership. Now in France, such a position is not too popular in society, and therefore right-wing candidates who previously advocated friendship with Russia are now forced to constantly justify themselves, and therefore in advance find themselves in a losing position.
At the moment, unless some unforeseen force majeure happens, it can be concluded that Macron, despite all the existing discontent in the French society with his previous policy as President of France, will be able to take advantage of external circumstances and convince wavering voters to take his side with the full and unconditional support of the official media. So now Macron’s second mandate seems to be the most realistic scenario for the upcoming presidential elections in France.
Igor Ignatchenko — Ph.D., historian, associate professor of the Institute of Social Sciences of the RANEPA (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration), special to Realist English.
