TEHRAN (Realist English). The United States and Iran are close to signing a 60‑day memorandum that would temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Israel, feeling sidelined from the talks, is intensifying military pressure on the Lebanese front and preparing for unilateral action.
The Last 100 Metres of Diplomacy
US and Iranian negotiators have agreed on a draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) providing for a 60‑day ceasefire. The document awaits final approval from Donald Trump and Iran’s leadership. It envisages:
- Full reopening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The sides have agreed that shipping will be “unrestricted” – no tolls, no harassment. In return, Iran will clear the strait of mines within 30 days, while the US will lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports in proportion to the restoration of commercial traffic through the strait.
- Start of nuclear talks. Within 60 days, negotiations will begin on the fate of highly enriched uranium stockpiles and the prospects for Iranian enrichment.
- Sanctions relief. The US is willing to discuss unfreezing Iranian assets, including $12 billion held in Qatari banks, as well as easing Tehran’s access to humanitarian supplies.
- Role of Pakistan and Oman. Oman, a key partner in controlling the strait, has already said it will not impose tolls for passage, while Pakistan continues to serve as a channel of communication between the sides.
However, disagreements remain between Washington and Tehran over “one or two provisions”, including “language relating to uranium enrichment”.
Moreover, the sides continue to exchange military strikes – the US has carried out several airstrikes on IRGC positions in Bandar Abbas and southern Iranian provinces, and Iranian media report the downing of US drones.
The Israeli Factor: “Sorry, You’re Out of the Game”
Israel’s establishment realises that Washington and Tehran are conducting negotiations largely without its participation.
“We will not sit idly by.” According to The New York Times, the Trump administration has almost completely excluded Israel from the negotiating process.
Benjamin Netanyahu, trying to save face, said that Trump had reaffirmed that “Israel has the right to defend itself against threats on all fronts, including Lebanon”, and that “any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear threat”. However, Israel fears that once assets are unfrozen, Iran will restore its military potential and missile programmes.
“More guarantees than victory.” Lacking leverage over Trump, the Israeli government is now forced to seek from the US not so much the cancellation of the deal as security guarantees in case the talks collapse or Iran violates its commitments.
The Lebanese Front: “Step Harder on the Gas”
While diplomats argue over words, Netanyahu has ordered an expansion of the ground operation in Lebanon. The prime minister has declared the need to “crush” Hezbollah.
- Massive airstrikes. The Israeli Air Force has carried out more than 100 strikes on Hezbollah positions in the Bekaa Valley (eastern Lebanon) and in the south of the country. Targets included command centres, weapons depots and infrastructure facilities.
- Carrying the war deeper into Lebanon. For the first time in three weeks, Israeli aircraft struck the southern suburbs of Beirut, targeting the head of the rocket forces of a pro‑Iranian militia operating alongside Hezbollah.
- Ground operation. The IDF has expanded its ground manoeuvres, seizing strategic commanding heights in southern Lebanon, and has officially warned residents of ten villages north of the border to leave the combat zone.
Reaction of Arab Countries and the Role of Mediators
The Arab monarchies of the Gulf, fearing a protracted war with Iran, are acting as a united front to pressure the US. They are demanding from Trump concessions on Palestine, effectively blocking any expansion of the Abraham Accords without the creation of an independent Palestinian state, and are calling on Israel to stop the violence. Qatar, which serves as the custodian of Iranian assets, has become a key player on this diplomatic field.
Israel, feeling that its interests may be sacrificed to diplomacy, is betting on escalation, trying to create “facts on the ground” in Lebanon. The coming days will show whether American diplomacy can appease Tehran and keep its key Middle Eastern ally from derailing the entire negotiating process.
