TEHRAN (Realist English). The negotiation process between the United States and Iran over the past 24 hours has demonstrated the full depth of the contradictions inherent in this crisis.
Diplomats in Doha are finalizing a 14-point memorandum of understanding, yet at the same time US aircraft are striking Iranian targets and Iran’s leadership is issuing increasingly severe warnings toward Washington. Markets and key regional players remain on edge: will a temporary agreement be signed, or will the conflict enter a new phase?
From Ultimatums to Leaks
The last 48 hours have perhaps been the most contradictory period of the entire negotiation process. US President Donald Trump, commenting on the dialogue, initially stated that a deal was “largely agreed” and would be announced “very soon.” However, a few hours later he appeared to reverse course, writing on Truth Social that “the deal is not fully agreed.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in New Delhi, added to the uncertainty by stating that diplomacy has “a few more days,” but that if it fails, Washington will find “another way.”
Tehran has also been sending mixed signals. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed that “progress has been made on most of the issues under discussion,” but stressed that “the signing of an agreement is not inevitable.” According to him, the reason lies in “the institutionalized vacillations of the United States and frequent shifts in its positions.”
At the same time, senior Iranian diplomat Hossein Nousheabadi told ISNA that Iran is prepared to discuss its nuclear program and the fate of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, provided Washington fulfills its obligations regarding sanctions relief and the unfreezing of assets.
Architecture of the Future Memorandum
Despite the harsh rhetoric, the outline of a possible agreement is gradually becoming clearer. According to the draft memorandum of understanding, the document is intended to remain in force for 60 days and consists of two stages.
According to diplomatic sources, the first stage includes:
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz (within 30 days): Iran would gradually reopen the strait, conduct demining operations, and restore maritime traffic to pre-war levels. Commercial vessels would be allowed to pass without restrictions or additional fees.
Lifting restrictions and unfreezing assets: The United States would begin easing restrictions on Iranian ports and initiate the process of unfreezing Iranian assets. According to various estimates, this could involve the release of between $6 billion and $24 billion in frozen funds.
Nuclear pause: Iran’s nuclear program is not included in the current memorandum. Detailed discussions, including the fate of uranium stockpiles (estimated at around 440 kg enriched to 60%), would be postponed to the second phase.
Flashpoints: Strikes, Threats and Conditions
The situation is further complicated by the fact that diplomatic efforts are unfolding in parallel with military activity.
US strikes “in self-defence”: Early on May 26, US forces struck southern Iran, destroying two IRGC boats allegedly laying mines, along with a surface-to-air missile system. The Pentagon described the actions as an “act of self-defence.”
In response, the IRGC claimed to have shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone after it allegedly violated Iranian airspace and warned that “no agreement will be reached as long as the Americans continue their adventures.”
Iranian ultimatum: Iran’s leadership has also increased pressure. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei stated that countries in the region “will no longer serve as a shield for US bases.” Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee, called negotiations on a final agreement “pointless” unless several preconditions are met, including a ceasefire on all fronts — particularly in Lebanon — and the lifting of oil sanctions.
The Israeli Factor: A “Bad Deal”
Israel’s opposition reacted to the potential agreement with strong scepticism. Opposition leader Yair Lapid described the deal as “bad for Israel and the region,” criticizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for being unable to influence the course of negotiations.
According to Lapid, “the Israeli government is at a historic low in its ability to influence decisions in Washington.”
Netanyahu himself continues to maintain a hard line. Following another conversation with Trump, he stated that any final agreement must include “the dismantling of Iranian uranium enrichment facilities and the removal of enriched nuclear material from Iranian territory.”
He also reiterated his intention to continue operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a position that directly contradicts Iran’s demand for a ceasefire on all fronts.
Position of Arab Allies and Market Reaction
Amid the uncertainty, the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE — have called on Washington to continue diplomatic efforts. They fear that renewed hostilities could trigger another wave of strikes against regional infrastructure.
At the same time, Reuters sources in Iran reported that “realistic formulas” are being explored to resolve the nuclear issue, including the possible dilution of uranium under IAEA supervision.
Markets reacted to the contradictory developments with rising oil prices. Brent crude climbed 3.8%, approaching $100 per barrel, as traders continued to price in the risk of a breakdown in negotiations and a further escalation of the conflict.
