PARIS (Realist English). Global demand for oil and gas is likely to continue rising until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, in a major reversal from its earlier forecasts of a peak this decade. The agency now expects fossil fuels to retain a dominant share of the global energy mix for at least another 25 years — a development that would make international climate goals effectively unattainable.
The IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook departs sharply from its previous projections under the Joe Biden administration, when it said no new investment in oil and gas would be required for the world to meet its net-zero target. The new assessment aligns more closely with the position of the Trump administration, which has urged US energy companies to expand production.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, appointed by President Donald Trump, has called the IEA’s earlier predictions of an imminent demand peak “nonsensical.” The United States remains the IEA’s largest financial contributor, and its policy influence over the Paris-based agency is significant.
Under its current policies scenario — which includes only measures already in place, not aspirational climate pledges — the IEA expects global oil demand to reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, up about 13% from 2024 levels. Overall global energy demand is projected to rise by 90 exajoules by 2035, a 15% increase from today.
The IEA noted that this year’s analysis drops its earlier “pledges scenario,” which incorporated government promises to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century. Too few countries have submitted updated climate plans for 2031–2035 to produce meaningful projections, the agency said.
In its stated policies scenario, which includes proposed but not yet implemented policies, the IEA forecasts oil demand peaking around 2030, followed by only a gradual decline.
The report also highlights a sharp rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) investment, with new projects adding about 300 billion cubic metres of export capacity by 2030 — a 50% increase from current supply. Under current policies, global LNG trade will grow from 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and 1,020 bcm in 2050, driven by surging electricity consumption from data centres and artificial intelligence.
Global investment in data centres is projected to reach $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion currently spent annually on oil supply, the IEA said — underscoring how digitalisation is reshaping global energy use.
Even under the agency’s net zero by 2050 pathway, global temperatures are expected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the target agreed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference — before stabilising later in the century, and only if large-scale carbon removal technologies are deployed.
“The trajectory we are on is inconsistent with the goals of Paris,” the IEA concluded, warning that without decisive policy changes, the world faces a future of entrenched fossil fuel dependence, accelerating emissions, and mounting climate risks.
