NAY PYI TAW (Realist English). Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has been elected president by a newly formed parliament, completing a long-promised transition to civilian rule five years after the 2021 coup — a move widely seen as consolidating, rather than reducing, military control.
The vote follows elections dominated by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which secured nearly 80% of contested seats, while the armed forces retain a constitutionally guaranteed 25% share in parliament. Observers and analysts describe the outcome as predetermined.
Min Aung Hlaing stepped down as commander-in-chief ahead of assuming the presidency, in line with constitutional requirements. He was replaced by Ye Win Oo, a close ally widely regarded as a hardliner. At the same time, a newly created consultative council is expected to hold overarching authority over both civilian and military affairs, further entrenching the junta’s influence.
The transition marks the culmination of a pledge made shortly after the February 2021 coup, when the military ousted the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The junta had initially promised elections within a year.
However, the political landscape has been fundamentally reshaped by five years of conflict. The military’s crackdown on mass protests triggered a civil war that has killed thousands and displaced millions. Armed resistance groups now control significant parts of the country, while the military continues air strikes and operations against opposition-held areas.
Analysts say the change in formal leadership is unlikely to alter the trajectory of the conflict. According to conflict monitoring group ACLED, resistance forces still control dozens of towns, and military operations — including air and drone strikes — are expected to continue.
The National Unity Government (NUG), representing the ousted civilian administration, has rejected the election and new political structures as illegitimate and pledged to continue its campaign against military rule.
The economic impact of the crisis has been severe. According to United Nations estimates, more than 16 million people require humanitarian assistance, while nearly 4 million have been displaced. Inflation has surged, and living standards have deteriorated sharply.
The situation has been further complicated by fuel shortages linked to disruptions in global energy markets. Myanmar imports around 90% of its fuel, and rising prices and rationing have intensified pressure on households and businesses already struggling with unreliable electricity supply.
Local residents report worsening conditions. In Yangon, workers say incomes are no longer sufficient to cover basic expenses, while businesses dependent on generators face mounting costs due to fuel scarcity.
Despite the formal shift to a civilian presidency, Min Aung Hlaing has shown no indication of changing course. In recent public remarks, he reiterated the military’s role as a guardian of national stability and described opposition forces as “terrorist factions”.
Some voices within Myanmar have called for dialogue. Veteran activist Mya Aye has proposed negotiations between the military and opposition groups and urged the release of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, as a potential step toward compromise.
However, prospects for such a settlement remain uncertain. With both the military and resistance maintaining hardline positions, analysts warn that Myanmar is likely to remain locked in a protracted conflict, with limited space for political resolution in the near term.
