TEHRAN (Realist English). Washington is simultaneously threatening Tehran with “bomb negotiations” and giving it a reprieve, while Israeli aircraft continue to strike Lebanon despite a formal ceasefire.
Delayed attack, stalemate and the risk of a new war
On the morning of 19 May, Donald Trump announced that he had postponed large‑scale strikes on Iran that had been planned for that day. The reason, he said, was a request from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who asked that diplomacy be given another chance.
Behind this apparent diplomatic manoeuvring, however, lies a deep stagnation. The Trump administration remains extremely dissatisfied with Tehran’s response. According to Axios, the new Iranian proposal, conveyed through Pakistani mediators, was deemed insufficient, and official Washington said its conditions had not been met.
A senior US official warned that if Iran does not change its position, the US will be forced to continue talks “with bombs”. “We’re really not making much progress. Today we are in a very serious situation,” an unnamed official said, adding that concessions from the US would not be “free”.
Trump himself told the New York Post that he was “not ready” to make any concessions to Tehran, effectively closing the door to a real compromise.
The key disagreements remain intractable:
- The US demands the removal of 400 kg of Iranian enriched uranium, no reparations and the freezing of assets.
- Iran insists on a complete end to the war, the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of its assets.
At the same time, despite the delay, Trump has ordered the military to be ready for a “full‑scale offensive” at any moment, giving Tehran “two or three days” to think. He confirmed that a deal is possible and that the chances are “very good”, but only on Washington’s terms.
Israel is ready for a new strike and continues to bomb Lebanon
While the US administration is formally seeking a diplomatic way out, Israel is demonstrating its full readiness for escalation.
On the Iranian front
Tel Aviv and the Pentagon continue active preparations for new attacks. According to the New York Times, scenarios are being developed that include sending special forces to search for nuclear materials underground and carrying out pinpoint but powerful strikes on infrastructure. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has confirmed that the country is ready to resume military action at any moment.
On the Lebanese front
Despite the earlier announcement that the ceasefire with Lebanon had been extended by 45 days, hostilities have not ceased. Israeli aircraft continue to strike the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon, citing threats from Hezbollah. An IDF spokesman said that there was no ceasefire as such, and that neutralising Hezbollah remains a priority.
The fragile truce is under threat of collapse. Trump, cornered by the need to keep oil prices down and fulfil his election promises, is forced to demonstrate “toughness” by threatening bombing.
Israel, which does not believe diplomacy can succeed, is expanding its military presence on its own. Iran is biding its time, demanding guarantees and the unfreezing of assets. The threat of force has once again become the main instrument of diplomacy.
