RIYADH (Realist English). Saudi Arabia is discussing with its allies the idea of concluding a non-aggression pact between Middle Eastern states and Iran.
The talks are part of efforts to manage regional tensions after the end of the US‑Israeli war against the Islamic Republic, diplomats said.
According to two Western diplomats, Riyadh is considering the Helsinki process of the 1970s – which helped ease tensions in Europe during the Cold War – as a potential model.
The non‑aggression pact is just one of many ideas being discussed as the region braces for a post‑war settlement, expecting a weakened but still dangerous Iran.
Fear of a “wounded but more hawkish” Iran
Gulf states have been particularly concerned since the start of the US‑Israeli war against Iran. They fear that after the conflict ends and the large US military presence in the region is scaled back, they will be left with a “wounded but more hawkish” Islamic regime on their doorstep.
The Helsinki Accords, signed in 1975 by the US, European countries, the Soviet Union and its allies, were designed to address security issues and foster greater economic cooperation between rival powers. This format has previously been proposed as a possible model for the Middle East, where Iran’s neighbours have viewed it as a destabilising force and potential threat since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
However, months of war have given Arab and Muslim states a new sense of urgency: they are forced to rethink their alliances and the region’s security architecture.
European support and the Arab position
Many European capitals and EU institutions, according to diplomats, have backed the Saudi initiative and are urging other Gulf countries to join it. They see this approach as the best way to avoid future conflicts and to provide Tehran with guarantees that it will not be attacked.
The US and Iran are currently conducting talks through mediators to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the discussions have focused on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme, not on its missile and drone arsenal or its support for regional proxy forces – key concerns for Arab states.
One Arab diplomat said: “It all depends who is in it – in the current climate you are not going to be able to get Iran and Israel… Without Israel it could be counter‑productive because after Iran, they are seen as the biggest source of conflict. But Iran is not going anywhere, and this is why the Saudis are pushing it.”
Rift among Arab monarchies
Iran retaliated against the US‑Israeli war by launching massive missile and drone strikes against Gulf states, hitting energy facilities and other civilian infrastructure, and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. This underlined its potential threat to smaller neighbours.
Some Arab and Muslim states have also become increasingly concerned about Israel’s military conduct following Hamas’s attack on 7 October 2023. Many do not have formal relations with Israel. They blame Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for dragging US President Donald Trump into a war they lobbied against. Israel is increasingly seen by many Arab and Muslim states as a belligerent, destabilising force, as it continues to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, while also occupying parts of southern Syria.
There are also divisions among Arab and Muslim states – particularly between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the Gulf’s two most influential states – over conflicting visions for the region and economic competition.
The UAE has been the most hawkish Gulf state towards Iran during the war and has criticised Arab institutions for not being more robust in their response to Iranian aggression. Abu Dhabi has made it clear that after the war it intends to double down on its relations with Israel. Two diplomats questioned whether the UAE would be willing to join any non‑aggression pact.
New alliances: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, meanwhile, have been more supportive of Pakistan‑led mediation efforts to broker a deal between the US and Iran to end the war. The Kingdom is part of an emerging alignment with Pakistan (with which it signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025), Turkey and Egypt.
Diplomats note that although no formal alliance exists, these states are likely to deepen defence, foreign policy and economic cooperation after the war.
Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said on 11 May 2026 that Islamabad had developed a proposal for Qatar and Turkey to join the Saudi‑Pakistani defence pact to build an “economic and defence alliance… that will minimise dependence outside the region”. A Pakistani official said the idea of expanding the defence pact was first mooted before the war.
Saudi Arabia, realising that Iran will not disappear after the war, is trying to seize the initiative and propose a regional security architecture that would replace direct US military protection.
The Helsinki model is an attempt to institutionalise coexistence with Tehran while not alienating Israel.
However, the key question is whether Washington can support this process, given its own involvement in talks with Iran, and whether the rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi can be overcome – which could become the main obstacle to an Arab consensus.
