MOSCOW (Realist English). The Russian service sector was the main driver of final demand in 2025, compensating for stagnation in industry. However, the first months of 2026 present a contradictory picture: growth in some segments coexists with an alarming slowdown in business activity in others.
Recovery After the Crisis
In 2025, the volume of paid services to the population in Russia reached 19.94 trillion rubles. In comparable prices, this is 2.7% more than in 2024 (17.38 trillion rubles). Per capita, the figure was 118.95 thousand rubles.
Key segments in the overall structure (2025):
- Transport services — 3.43 trillion rubles.
- Utilities — 3.09 trillion rubles.
- Household services — 2.06 trillion rubles (share 12.2%, growth of 9.6% year-on-year).
- Telecommunications services — 1.74 trillion rubles.
Consumer Trends: Focus on Oneself and “Micro‑Investments”
According to analytics from the Avito Services platform:
- Self‑care became a priority. Demand for makeup services grew by 79%, manicure/pedicure by 56%, hairdressing by 43%.
- “Micro‑investments” instead of “turnkey”. Russians have moved to targeted solutions: instead of renovating an entire apartment — only one room; instead of changing profession — retraining; instead of a grand wedding — an intimate event.
- Shift from goods to experiences and health. Consumers directed funds toward medicine, education and tourism, postponing purchases of real estate and durable goods.
Sector Dynamics
- IT and telecommunications: In February 2026, paid IT services to the population amounted to 43.3 billion rubles (up 15.5% from February 2025). Telecom services for the same month — 166.6 billion rubles (up 8.5%).
- Post and logistics: Paid postal and courier services in February 2026 showed a 0.2% increase year-on-year and 4.1% compared to January 2026. However, over the first 10 months of 2025, there was a 1.1% decline year-on-year due to weak demand for traditional mail.
- Transport: In 2025, total freight volume amounted to 8.1 billion tons (100.1% of 2024), freight turnover — 3 trillion ton‑kilometers (98.7%). The passenger segment remained virtually unchanged: 10.36 billion people (99.8% of 2024).
- Tourism: Its share in Russia’s GDP in 2025 was 3.1%. Tourism export volume reached $8.75 billion (+20%). Inbound flow grew by 13% (to 5.8 million foreign tourists). Domestic tourism increased by 4.1%. However, in the first quarter of 2026, the number of closed travel companies rose by 34.2% (1,200 companies), and summer demand fell by almost 5%.
- Public catering: Turnover for the first 11 months of 2025 increased by 8.7% year-on-year. The number of entrepreneurs in the sector reached 178,800 (+5.2% over the year). The market in 2025 is estimated at 6–6.1 trillion rubles. At the same time, the number of pizzerias decreased by 6.7% and sushi bars by 7.5%.
- Fitness and education: Fitness industry revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 — 159.5 billion rubles (+14.3%). Companies spent 1.3% of payroll on employee training, with 33% of employers planning to increase investment. Average spending on a child’s additional education rose to 17,600 rubles per month (in 2024 it was just over 9,000 rubles).
Slowdown Indicators in 2026
According to the S&P Global Business Activity Index (PMI):
- April 2026 — 49.7 points.
- May 2026 — 48.7 points.
This is the third month in a row that the indicator has remained below the 50‑point threshold separating growth from contraction. Companies attribute this to weakening consumer demand and a decline in new orders.
What Do These Figures Tell Us?
The data presented paint a complex and contradictory picture of the Russian service sector in mid‑2026. Here are the key conclusions:
1. Structural shift in consumption: from goods to experiences and self‑care
The growth in demand for hairdressing (+43%), makeup (+79%) and fitness (+14.3%) against the backdrop of stagnation in purchases of real estate and durable goods points to an “economy of mood.”
Faced with uncertainty and high interest rates on loans, Russians have switched to affordable but immediately tangible services. This is psychological adaptation: people spend on what improves their well‑being “here and now,” postponing large investments.
2. “Micro‑investments” as a survival strategy
The shift from full renovation to localized repairs, from career change to retraining, from a lavish wedding to an intimate event — this is not just a trend but a forced adaptation to shrinking real incomes (or their nominal growth lagging behind inflation). People have learned to break large expenditures into smaller ones, managing risks. For business, this means the offer must be flexible and modular.
3. Tourism is paradoxical: inbound growth and travel firm bankruptcies
A 13% increase in inbound tourism (and an even more impressive +37.5% in the first two months of 2026) is a real success linked to reorientation to the East and the closure of competing destinations.
However, the simultaneous 34.2% rise in the number of closed travel companies and the fall in summer demand show that only large players with access to government programs and cheap financing are benefiting. Small and medium‑sized tour businesses are struggling.
4. Catering: saturation and changing formats
Market growth of 8.7% while the number of pizzerias and sushi bars declines points to a structural shift. The consumer is tired of one‑day formats and demands either high quality or maximum speed and price.
Supermarkets with their ready‑to‑eat food are actively eating into the market share of traditional restaurants.
This is a zone of intense competition where only low‑cost chain operators or unique establishments with a strong brand will survive.
5. PMI below 50 — a worrying signal
Three months in a row with the business activity index below 50 points is the clearest sign of a recession in the services sector at the start of 2026. In 2025, the service sector was the locomotive pulling the economy.
Now that locomotive is slowing. The decline in new orders indicates that consumer confidence is falling and the pent‑up demand effect from the post‑crisis period has been exhausted.
6. Education and IT — long‑term trends
Rising spending on education (both for children and employees) and on IT services (+15.5%) represents investment in the future that is not cut even during a crisis.
Companies and households have realized that digital skills and additional education are insurance against job loss and a guarantee of competitiveness.
This segment will grow regardless of cyclical fluctuations.
Overall Conclusion
The Russian service sector has passed its peak of recovery growth and entered a phase of unstable equilibrium. The main drivers of 2025 (tourism, catering, fitness) are starting to lose ground due to exhaustion of pent‑up demand, high interest rates and inflation.
The only stable growth points remain digital services, telecommunications and education. If the PMI decline continues, in the second half of 2026 the economy may face a situation where industry is already stagnating and services no longer compensate for the downturn.
