BEIJING (Realist English). China’s top leadership on Thursday pledged to strengthen domestic consumption and accelerate self-reliance in advanced technologies such as quantum computing and hydrogen power over the next five years, according to a state media summary of the Fourth Plenum — the key meeting that sets medium-term economic priorities.
The meeting focused primarily on domestic growth, with officials stressing the need to “vigorously boost consumption” while maintaining “effective investment” to balance supply and demand. “New demand will lead to new supply, and new supply will create new demand,” the readout said, outlining a framework aimed at reviving household spending without resorting to direct cash handouts.
Vice Premier He Lifeng, who attended the session, is expected to travel to Malaysia on Friday for U.S. trade talks, fueling speculation that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may meet later this month.
While the leadership reiterated China’s commitment to “safeguard the multilateral trading system,” it avoided naming any specific countries, reflecting a cautious diplomatic tone amid strained relations with Washington.
Economists say the new emphasis on domestic demand signals a subtle policy shift. “Policymakers are paying closer attention to the relationship between supply and demand than in past years,” said Zong Liang, former chief researcher at the Bank of China. However, he noted this doesn’t imply a move toward consumer stimulus.
Instead, Beijing appears ready to continue using investment as a tool to stimulate consumption, said Yue Su of the Economist Intelligence Unit. She expects future investment to focus on “consumption-related sectors such as urban planning, public services, and elderly care.”
Despite government subsidies for appliances and consumer goods, spending has remained weak since the pandemic. “Without a concrete fiscal commitment, the goal of boosting consumption remains largely aspirational,” said Dan Wang, China director at the Eurasia Group.
The plenum reaffirmed China’s 2025 growth target of around 5%, with projections implying an average annual growth of 4.6% through 2035 — a pace analysts warn will be “very costly” to sustain.
Leaders also promised a “significant leap forward” in scientific and technological capabilities, framing innovation and manufacturing resilience as central to national security. “We will strive over the next five years to achieve a significant leap in economic, scientific, defense, and comprehensive national strength by 2035,” the communiqué said.
That message aligns with China’s ongoing effort to reduce dependence on foreign technology in response to U.S. export restrictions. “The emphasis on industry will broadly remain,” said Louis Kuijs, APAC chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. “This points to a continued push for technological self-reliance in an increasingly challenging global environment.”
The readout made only brief mention of the country’s property market downturn, calling for “high-quality development” in real estate, and reiterated commitments to carbon reduction and green transition goals.
Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, speaking Friday, said Beijing would monitor both gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI) to better measure progress. Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, added that household consumption is expected to “clearly rise” over the next five years.
A more detailed version of China’s new five-year plan is expected to be unveiled at the National People’s Congress in March 2026.
